The Page
By Mark Halperin
Subway Series. What if the Fall Classic bumps into the fall election?
So far, it has been a very good baseball season for both John McCain and Barack Obama. A week past the All-Star break, McCain's home-state squad, the Arizona Diamondbacks, are leading the National League West. Obama is having an even better Major League year. His beloved Chicago White Sox are atop their division, and their crosstown rivals, the long-cursed Cubs, have the third best record in baseball. At Obama headquarters, there are dreams taking hold that both hometown teams might win a pennant, leading them to face off in the World Series on the eve of the election. Obama would almost certainly attend some of the games and bask in the excitement of Chicago's first Subway Series in 102 years (though he might want to avoid visiting Wrigley Field, where his allegiance to the Sox could earn him a chorus of, well, Bronx cheers). A Diamondbacks--White Sox series isn't out of the question either--which would inevitably lead to one of those goofy, symbolic bets that politicians always make over sporting events. Of course, the stakes will be far greater than just chili peppers and pizza a few days later.
CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Foreign Policy Agenda-Setting Margins of Error Economy ACTION Images of Barack Obama meeting with world leaders, military commanders and U.S. troops were accompanied by credible talk of withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq and a Bush Administration diplomat joining Iran discussions. John McCain faces the possibility of losing one of his few advantages: a firm focus on national security. With Obama on an international globe-trot, McCain was forced to spend the week reacting to the Democrat's every move rather than aggressively shaping the debate with his own message. The fight to control the agenda is usually an ongoing tug-of-war between the two candidates. In this case, Obama dominated the story line, dragging the GOP along in his wake. Independent data and worried GOP pollsters suggest that McCain, as of now, can hope for few blue-state victories this fall. A slew of red states are currently in play for Obama, giving him several ways to hit 270 electoral votes. If the numbers hold, McCain may need to draw an inside straight to take the presidency. Another week of mostly bad news and palpable economic anxiety. The Bush Administration's continued insistence that the economy is fundamentally sound might seem like necessary cheerleading to the White House, but it leaves the Republican Party looking somewhat out of touch.
RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS X X X X TIE
WINNER OF THE WEEK: DEMOCRATS
Anchored by his trip abroad, Obama dominated, even if his stance on the Iraq troop surge and a withdrawal timetable appeared a bit muddled. Observers will look for a polling bounce from the most lopsided stretch of the race yet.
NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.
WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X 2 DEMOCRATS X X X X X 5
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With reporting by Randy James, Katie Rooney