The Page

By Mark Halperin

Keystone State Keys

Pennsylvania's Democratic primary on April 22 could be a win-or-go-home contest for Hillary Clinton--and a chance for Barack Obama to show he can compete in a big, industrial battleground state. How the pros see the fight shaping up:

Where the Votes Will Come From

20% PHILADELPHIA

15% PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS

15% Pittsburgh area

10% LEHIGH, BERKS AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES

40% REST OF THE STATE

How They Can Win

BARACK OBAMA Run up huge margins in Philadelphia and with African-American voters statewide; achieve parity in Philadelphia suburbs; win big with college kids

HILLARY CLINTON Win suburban women as well as older, rural and Catholic voters; leverage family roots around Scranton; win the white working class

The Big Question Which candidate best appeals to Pennsylvania voters hit hard by economic turmoil?

Where the Battles Are

Who wins the wide-open central part of the state?

Who takes Montgomery County--the big battleground with wealthy antiwar voters, lots of women and some African Americans?

Does the African-American vote in Philadelphia top 65% of the city's total?

Master of Moderation. NBC's Brian Williams on how to run a debate

How do you prepare? I solicit questions from just about everybody I know. I ask civilians. I ask partisans on both sides. I've also found as a tactic that the moderator's eyes have to be very carefully focused. You really have to remain kind of an impassive figure at these debates.

People say all the time that there have been so many debates. I'm kind of startled to hear that occasional person say, "I still don't have the information I need," or "I'm not satisfied with the coverage thus far." The coverage has been molecular given the amount of media out there. I did notice a two-day period recently where the nation went without a debate, and I was horrified.

What are the tricks the candidates use to exert control? These candidates know their way around a debate. Everybody walks in the room with a flash of humor to use if needed, a long ball to use if needed, an attack line to use if needed. I think we have to remember that our job is to try to break up the kind of frozen ice of canned responses.

What is the moderator's responsibility if the candidates break the agreed-upon format rules? We have at various times tried bells, whistles, everything but cattle prods, and I think rules can sometimes get very cumbersome. We've tried it with no rules, and especially in the late going, they're going to try to do whatever they damn well please.

Do you make small talk during commercials, or does everybody just look off into the distance? Debates in my mind are like Vegas. What happens during commercial breaks stays in the debate hall ... I always try to leave the debate hall like the Von Trapp family and get out of there.

Do you visit the candidates in their greenrooms before the debate? First time I see them is when they walk out. I would rather, on debate night, limit the scope of our relationship and conversation to what happens onstage. I think it keeps it fresher and more spontaneous.