Fight for the Party Faithful

By Michael Scherer

There's a reason they call it the "Firewall." From its inception, the South Carolina Republican primary was meant to douse the flames of political passion. The late GOP strategic wizard Lee Atwater designed the thing to give conservative Southerners a say in the presidential process and offer churchgoers a power line to the White House. Then he scheduled it right after Iowa and New Hampshire, the ideal spot for the party establishment to suppress an insurgent candidate's momentum.

So it was South Carolina that stopped Bob Dole in 1988, handing the nomination to the Establishment candidate, George Bush the father. Then, in 2000, John McCain lost his cool and his lead to a revolt by the party base, which chose another Establishment candidate, George Bush the son.

Now the state looms again as a candidate killer. "Since 1980, the person who won two out of [the first] three states has gone on to get the nomination," McCain often tells reporters on the trail. Even though he leaves New Hampshire on a victory roll, the voters in South Carolina still view John McCain--long in the tooth and in the Senate--as an insurgent.

McCain's immediate problem in South Carolina is his ally from Iowa and New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas Governor and Baptist pastor, has built a double-digit lead in polls of the state's heavily Baptist electorate. For weeks, the two men have praised each other's talents and made common cause against their well-funded adversary, Mitt Romney. No more: Romney has diverted resources from South Carolina to Michigan, where he hopes to revive his wounded campaign with a primary win on Jan. 15. "It's not that we don't recognize that we are competing for the same job," Huckabee said of McCain. "But I think we also recognize that it can be done in a civil manner. And we are both committed to that."

But South Carolina is known for ending political allegiances, and it's a long shot that the mutual love will last. Already Huckabee is airing television ads boasting of his tough approach to illegal immigration, McCain's Achilles' heel.

Perhaps the biggest factor separating the two is the sway of evangelical voters, who dominate the Republican base. David Woodard, who helps run the Clemson University Palmetto Poll, says that over the past 20 years, 60% to 70% of the state's likely Republican-primary voters go to church at least once a week. Of that group, about half are Southern Baptist, the faith of Pastor Huckabee.

McCain is still recovering from the July implosion of his campaign, which resulted in pink slips for most of his South Carolina staff. Voters, already upset by his support of an immigration-reform bill in Congress, gave up on him. But Trey Walker, McCain's state campaign manager, remains optimistic. "The McCain resurgence is palpable," he says, adding that the campaign is now at about three-quarters of its pre-July strength.

One other X factor: Fred Thompson, the onetime darling of Southern conservatives, with an endorsement from National Right to Life, who has mounted an aggressive bus tour to save his foundering campaign. If he gets traction, he could erode Huckabee's support among the pro-life base of the party.

On Jan. 8, Huckabee's South Carolina chairman, the state's former Governor, David Beasley, stood behind Huckabee as he celebrated his third-place finish in New Hampshire. In an interview afterward, Beasley argued that Huckabee could be an unstoppable force, marrying his populist momentum from Iowa with an Establishment tie to the state as a fellow Southern Governor. "McCain will get a small bump," Beasley said of the Arizona Senator's New Hampshire win. But, he predicted, it would not be enough. In 2000 Beasley backed another Southern Governor, George W. Bush, in a triumph over McCain. Eight years later, Beasley foresees history repeating itself.