Independents' Day

By Karen Tumulty

As the presidential primary season moves on from Iowa, where intensely partisan Democratic and Republican electors dominate the process, the candidates are retooling their messages to appeal to a different kind of voter. In the next round of contests, voters unaffiliated with either party have the potential to determine the outcome, thanks to election rules in states like New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina, where independents can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries. Suddenly it seems that independents could well be the kingmakers, the voters whose preferences decide both the Republican and Democratic nominees for President.

Nowhere are voters being watched more closely than in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Jan. 8. Eight years ago, more than 60% of those who were registered as undeclared stampeded into the Republican primary, giving Arizona Senator John McCain an unexpected 18-point landslide over the GOP establishment favorite, then Texas Governor George W. Bush. (Among those who identified themselves as Republicans in exit polls, Bush beat McCain by 3 percentage points.) This year all indications are that undeclareds -- who are now 44% of all registered New Hampshire voters and constitute the largest share of the electorate -- will be voting most heavily in the Democratic contest. That means McCain may not be able to depend on independents to juice his campaign by pulling a repeat of his 2000 New Hampshire victory.

But bad news for McCain could be good news for Barack Obama, who has been leading among independent voters in recent polls and has tailored his message to focus on his ability to work across party lines. His first TV ad in New Hampshire featured a Republican, Illinois state senator Kirk Dillard, praising Obama for bipartisanship during his eight years in the state senate.

So who are these undeclared voters? For starters, they aren't as independent as the media and political campaigns usually make them out to be. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and the state's pre-eminent pollster, says the great majority of those who register as undeclared actually think of themselves -- and consistently vote -- as either Republicans or Democrats. "They're not really independents, and it's very misleading to call them that," says Smith, who estimates that only 8% of the New Hampshire electorate truly wanders from one party primary to the other. What's more, he says, those who don't declare a party are far less likely to show up at the polls. Typical turnout rates among undeclared voters are around 40%, compared with 70% among those who register as party members.

But there are other dynamics at work this year, the most important of which is an enormous influx of new voters. The University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute estimates that 145,000 voting-age people have moved to the Granite State in the past five years. While the ones who register do so primarily as undeclared, Smith says he believes they lean heavily Democratic, given that many come from the relatively liberal Boston area. Combined with the 86,000 people who turned 18 in this time, new voters account for nearly a quarter of the state's potential electorate.

The New Hampshire dynamic could be reversed at the next contest, on Jan. 15 in Michigan. The major Democratic candidates, facing sanctions from the national party because the state moved its primary date so early, aren't seriously competing there. But the Republican contest will be a spirited one, meaning that independents -- and even some Democrats -- will be drawn into the action. McCain won the last contested GOP primary there in 2000, but Mitt Romney -- who grew up in Michigan and whose father was Governor of the state in the '60s -- is making a serious bid tailored to independents' tastes. Though Romney pitched himself as a social conservative to Iowa's Republicans, his ads in Michigan and South Carolina focus on "economic pragmatism," says spokesman Kevin Madden. One ad specifically written for Michigan declares that Romney's gubernatorial experience in Massachusetts makes him well suited to help Michigan's ailing economy.

And for those candidates whose appeal to independents helps them win their party's nomination, the payoff down the road could be even greater. "Independents are obviously the pathway to the presidency," says Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. As McCain campaign manager Rick Davis puts it: "It's the fastest-growing party in America."