The Post-Tony Tussle

By J.F.O. McAllister

Now that Tony Blair has confirmed that he'll leave Downing Street within a year, who will the Bush Administration seek out as best mate? Put your money on Gordon Brown, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, or finance chief, as the next Prime Minister. London bookmaker William Hill gives him overwhelming odds--1 to 5. Brown is brainy, experienced, and has been heir apparent since opting not to fight Blair for the Labour Party leadership in 1994. But a contest among Labour heavyweights is still possible. Scars remain from the long, venomous feud between Brown's backers and Blair's troupe as Brown has grown increasingly vexed at his long wait for the top job. Some Cabinet ministers are worried that Brown lacks Blair's charisma and rapport with Middle England (not unlike Middle America) and that his dry, statistic-spouting persona will drive voters to the pub.

Already, one left-wing Parliament member, John McDonnell, says he'll run for the Labour leadership. But he has no real shot (odds: 100 to 1 against). John Reid (8 to 1 against), a former Communist turned right-wing Blairite, has long disliked Brown and would relish a grudge match. But at 59, he's the oldest likely contender, and his style seems out of tune with the iPod age. Hipness wouldn't be a problem for David Miliband (12 to 1 against), the 41-year-old Environment Minister. He's articulate, attractive--he even blogs. Alan Johnson, a genial ex--mail carrier and union leader now running Education, is a bit more popular, and M.P.s praying for anyone-but-Brown are leaning toward him as their best hope. (He's a 6-to-1 underdog, but his odds are the best of the second tier.)

The most crucial reason for Labour to unite: the new Conservative leader, David Cameron, 39. Young and smooth, he's putting a windmill on his house to proclaim how green he is. "Blair's true heir," he calls himself, stealing New Labour's thunder as assiduously as Blair stole Margaret Thatcher's. After a decade of trailing Labour in the polls, the Tories are now up 8 points. It will probably be three more years before Cameron goes head-to-head with Blair's replacement in a general election. But polls consistently show that British voters loathe divided parties. Just as Bill Clinton and Al Gore fumbled their handoff, so could Blair and Brown. Blair's next six months may end in Brown's coronation. Afterward, Britain's political future is anyone's bet. --By J.F.O. McAllister