Wage-ing Battle

By Perry Bacon Jr.

Ever since 2004, when the G.O.P. fired up its conservative core by getting gay-marriage bans on the ballot in 11 states on Election Day, Democrats have sought their own rally-the-base issue. What could motivate liberals to turn out for November's midterms? They think they have an answer: the minimum wage.

The federal minimum wage has been stuck at $5.15 an hour since 1997. Polls show that more than 80% of Americans favor an increase, but most Republican politicians--who traditionally side with the business lobby on the issue--do not. So Democrats are sharpening their attacks on the G.O.P. for seeming out of step with public opinion. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York has led a Democratic effort to block a scheduled $3,300 increase in congressional pay--the typical lawmaker's salary would rise to $168,500 a year--unless Republicans agree to hike the minimum wage to $7.25. The Dems are also emulating the Republican gay-marriage strategy by backing ballot measures in six states to boost the minimum wage. They hope voters will go to the polls for this cause, then support Democrats in races that could help the party take back Congress. Clinton and ex-Senator John Edwards will head to Ohio this week to stump for that state's measure. Edwards then plans to go to Arizona to rally for an initiative there.

The potential political cost of not supporting an increase is beginning to have an impact in the G.O.P. While Republican leaders in the House have so far blocked efforts to get a vote on the issue this year, some vulnerable, moderate G.O.P. members of Congress are speaking out for a higher minimum wage--and pushing their leadership to relent. Christopher Shays, a nine-term Connecticut Republican embroiled in a tight fight for re-election, says he backs the Dems' push. "I just think it's an embarrassment," he says of his party's stance on the issue.

Not enough Republicans have sided with Shays to get a House vote, which means any action this year will depend on voters in the six states with ballot initiatives. All would increase the minimum wage to at least $6.15, and all are good bets to pass. It's less clear whether the Democrats can convert that support into backing for the party. If the minimum wage doesn't generate maximum anger against the Republicans, low-income workers may find themselves with bigger paychecks, but congressional Democrats may be right back where they began--in the minority.