6 Ways to Fix K street

By MICHAEL DUFFY

No fewer than six lobbying-reform proposals were floating around Congress late last week, and leaders of both parties were promising that one, or perhaps elements of all, would pass before Groundhog Day. TIME surveyed the latest proposals and the lawmakers behind them to handicap the probable outcome.

1 Ban lobbyist-paid travel. Until the scandal broke, it was fine for your Representative to take an all-expenses-paid trip to Pago Pago on behalf of the Alaskan Coconut Packing Council and do virtually no work upon arrival. Lobbyists proposed, arranged and paid for those trips--then went along to chalk up quality time. Now, under almost every proposal, Republican and Democrat, the junkets would be history. Chance of passage: 99%. Likely work-around: lawmakers will try to carve out an exemption for "educational" trips sponsored by policy groups and friendly foreign countries.

2 Slow the revolving door. Former members of Congress and their aides must wait a year after leaving their posts before lobbying former colleagues. Lawmakers want to double the waiting time to two years. Chance of passage: 90%. Less likely: extending the ban to five years. Meaningless extra: the House will probably pat itself on the back for barring former members turned lobbyists from exercising their right to return to the House floor or mingle in the House gym--a step that sounds tough but isn't. Said a G.O.P. lawmaker: "By the time we get to the floor, we already know how the vote is going to turn out."

3 Ensure more transparency. Under this plan, lobbyists would have to disclose every dollar they spend on lawmakers. The limit on the value of a gift that aides and lawmakers would be allowed to accept would be lowered from $50 to perhaps $20. Chance of passage: 90%. Many, like Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, think gifts should be banned outright. "All the T shirts, golf caps and cheap luggage I've been given aren't even worth having," said a lawmaker. "None of these are gifts worth having."

4 Reform airfare rules. Lawmakers who really rate with lobbyists can often get a lift on a corporate jet and pay only first-class fare for the courtesy--a savings of time and thousands of dollars. Bills offered by both Feingold and Arizona Senator John McCain would require charter flights to be reimbursed at full market value, making them prohibitive. Chance of passage: 50%.

5 Ban earmarks. The once rare but now common practice of earmarking specific amounts of money for individual pork projects in hard-to-stop conference reports has given rise to a new class of lobbyist that specializes in the no-fingerprints line items. John Boehner, the Ohioan who wants to be House majority leader, backs this change, but so far it faces long odds. Chance of passage: 35%.

6 Ban fund raising while Congress is in session. Instead of dropping by two fund raisers a night in Washington, lobbyists would have to wait until recesses, making it harder to convert last night's donation into tomorrow's amendment. By lightening schedules, a ban would improve lawmakers' lives but flatten the capital's vast catering and events economy. Still, quipped a Midwestern lawmaker, "it would be the best airline bailout we could ever pass," since more fund raisers would take place out of town. Chance of passage: 10%.