Can the Democrats Go on Offense?

By Massimo Calabresi

Between Tom DeLay's ethics problems, the handling of Hurricane Katrina, the Iraq war and soaring gas prices, you'd think congressional Democrats would be counting the days in anticipation of the 2006 midterm elections. But while Republicans have given the minority party numerous political gifts, Democrats still seem to be struggling with the wrapping.

It's not that Democrats in Congress don't have a plan. They have too many. On Iraq, House minority leader Nancy Pelosi of California is flanked by Ohio's Dennis Kucinich, who leads a group calling for a troop withdrawal, and Missouri's Ike Skelton, who wants to send in more troops, while her own "issues" Web page declines to address the war at all. Pelosi and her No. 2, Maryland's Steny Hoyer, had an acrimonious split over bankruptcy legislation last spring, with Hoyer leading 72 other Democrats to vote with the G.O.P. In the battle over how to fund Katrina reconstruction, Pelosi first offered to cut most of her district's transportation pork, then backpedaled when few followed her lead. In the search for unity, says Marshall Wittmann, a former Republican activist now with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, Democrats "have to criticize the Republicans but also offer an alternative program."

Most election forecasters believe Democratic chances of retaking the House are slim in any case. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has a mere $8 million in the bank compared with the G.O.P.'s $18 million, and although House Democrats claim to have contenders for 40 G.O.P.-held districts, they are still having trouble finding promising candidates to run. The G.O.P.'s recent rough going has brought only the hesitant Florida businessman Tim Mahoney into the '06 race, according to Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel, who heads the DCCC.

It's not all the Democrats' fault. Over the last 20 years, gerrymandering of the sort DeLay was allegedly helping to fund in Texas has produced House seats that are easier for incumbents to defend. That in turn makes candidate recruitment and fund raising a far greater challenge--which means that even if Pelosi and company can find a way to speak with one voice in the wake of DeLay's troubles, the very thing that got him indicted may still keep Democrats out of power in 2006. --By Massimo Calabresi