How Much Will Really Go to the Victims?

By Jyoti Thottam

With nearly $4 billion pledged in tsunami relief so far, the governments of the world's wealthiest countries have sought to lay to rest doubts about the largeness of their largesse. But the sobering backdrop to that rush of official sympathy is a sorry history of half-finished aid efforts. The Iranian city of Bam, for example, where an earthquake killed some 30,000 people in December 2003, has so far seen only $17 million of the $1.1 billion in aid pledged by foreign governments at the time of the disaster, Iran's leaders say. To do better this time, rich countries will have to match to the size of their promises the strength of their commitment.

Why is that so difficult? Good intentions are partly to blame. Donor countries do not want their aid to overwhelm a country's bureaucracy or feed corruption, so in the name of accountability, they give very carefully. The pledges of aid made by governments are just that--pledges to help, not outlays of cash. Rather than write the U.N. a $4 billion check, governments pick and choose which relief and reconstruction efforts they want to fund. "It makes no sense just to give money," says German Chancellor Gerhard Schr??der. "Our people don't want that." At the donors conference in Jakarta last week, the U.N. launched an appeal for $977 million in short-term help over the next six months. Now it must go through the painstaking process of matching donors to dozens of projects in five countries as well as to overall regional aid. That means persuading donors to fund not just the high-profile, big-ticket projects like clearing debris in Aceh and monitoring disease outbreaks in Sri Lanka but the small-scale tasks as well. Somali fishermen need $1.9 million to repair their boats; $750,000 would measure damage to coral reefs in the Maldives. Some countries will give the U.N. unrestricted aid, but for the most part, each project needs confirmed funding to begin.

The U.S. has given few clues as to which projects it will support. So far, it has spent $66 million on immediate relief, like bags of rice and medical supplies, as well as $50 million in military aid, covering helicopters, cargo planes and help from troops on the ground. (Most of the Department of Defense's costs won't count against the $350 million pledge, according to State Department officials.) In Jakarta last week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said that "we will continue responding to legitimate demands until $350 [million] is reached." The $350 million offered by the White House will be drawn against existing funds for the U.S. Agency for International Development, and Congress sets that agency's budget. Any further increases in tsunami relief will need approval from Congress, where budget leaders have suggested that up to $1 billion in added funding could be approved.

But given the strains on the federal budget, it comes as little surprise that President Bush has called on citizens to donate privately and has appointed former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton to lead an effort to drum up private-sector support. "The greatest source of America's generosity is not our government," he said. "It's the good heart of the American people." To sweeten the deal, Congress is allowing taxpayers to claim tsunami-relief donations on their 2004 returns if the contributions are made by the end of this month.

That impulse, in the U.S. and abroad, has inundated private relief groups, some of which fear getting too much in tsunami-relief aid even while the U.N. frets about not having enough. "It's hard to say when enough is enough, but we have to be frank and realistic about our absorption and delivery capacity," says Matthias Schmale, international director of the British Red Cross in London. To avoid having to reject donors, Schmale says, the British Red Cross is looking for ways to redirect donations, possibly even to the U.N. Despite the U.N.'s reputation for mismanagement, Schmale says, there is some essential large-scale work, like rebuilding roads, that only the U.N. and local governments can handle.

Once the immediate needs are addressed--by the U.N., private relief agencies or direct aid and debt relief to local governments--a new calculus will come into play. Donor countries will have to balance the long-term needs of the tsunami-affected areas with those of other desperate parts of the globe. If the total sum is eventually disbursed, the $4 billion pledged so far should be enough to finance short-term relief. But the long-term needs are unknown, and the U.N. is likely to make new pleas for help in the coming months. At that point, wealthy countries will have to determine whether they can afford to ante up again. Doing so may require them to dip deeper into their foreign-aid budgets. "We will urge that donors be prepared to go the distance," says Stephanie Bunker, a spokeswoman for the U.N.'s Humanitarian Affairs division.

The risks of bungling the aid effort are very real. Having made such conspicuous pledges to the tsunami victims, foreign governments will have to deliver results fast or risk inviting resentment from the people they are trying to help. In Afghanistan, donors pledged $2 billion in 2002 for the first crucial year of rebuilding. But Afghan officials said the country saw only a fraction of that, $90 million. Many Afghans have lost faith since then and now direct their bitterness at the relief workers who are there.

Will the tsunami victims face disappointment? If history is any guide, yes. "Unless we keep the scrutiny up, there's nothing to suggest this case will be any different," says Max Lawson, policy adviser to Oxfam, a relief and development organization. But there's also reason for hope. In country after country, it was pressure from ordinary citizens that prodded governments to do their part. In the end, such pressure is the only thing that will make official generosity more than a show. --By Jyoti Thottam. Reported by William Boston/Berlin, Simon Elegant/Jakarta, Tim McGirk/ Islamabad, Eric Roston and Elaine Shannon/ Washington and Aatish Taseer/ London

WHAT THEY'RE GIVING Official pledges of assistance to tsunami victims by the U.S. and other major donors, as of Jan. 7

[This article contains a table. ??Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

With reporting by William Boston/Berlin; Simon Elegant/Jakarta; Tim McGirk/ Islamabad; Eric Roston; Elaine Shannon/ Washington; Aatish Taseer/ London