Candidates In the Wings

By Matthew Cooper/Washington

Rule No. 1 for any Republican who wants to succeed George W. Bush in 2008 is now clear: stay on the President's good side. It's his party, and from fund raising to endorsements, a sitting President can do a lot to determine who the next G.O.P. nominee will be. So if Senator John McCain decides to run for President in 2008, it won't hurt that he and Bush have cooled the infamous ire that developed between them during the pungent 2000 primary season. Campaigning together frequently this fall, the former rivals became, if not bosom buddies, closer than either ever expected, according to friends of both. Bush was impressed that McCain never wavered in his support for the war in Iraq, even as the security situation there deteriorated. And McCain was impressed with Bush's empathy when they visited relatives of soldiers killed in Iraq.

Now that Bush has been re-elected, it won't be long before attention turns to the 2008 fight for the Republican nomination. Since Vice President Dick Cheney has said he's not interested in following the tradition of V.P.s running to succeed the boss, there's no clear heir to the G.O.P. nomination. Potential contenders hail from different ideological camps and traditions. They include:

MCCAINIACS Because McCain has run before, he has a large national base from which to build a campaign. After Bush and Cheney, the Arizona Senator is the party's best-known face and has a proven appeal to Democrats and independents. "John McCain is positioned to be the front runner. Period," says Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole's 1996 presidential bid.

But several factors could hold McCain back. He'll be 72 in 2008, three years older than Ronald Reagan was when he became the oldest elected President. The policy positions that make McCain popular with independents would draw fire from rivals within the G.O.P. He has opposed some of President Bush's tax cuts, making him an apostate to the party's tax-cutting faithful. "We don't like McCain at all," says Stephen Moore of the Club for Growth. McCain in 2000 antagonized social conservatives when he likened religious broadcasters Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell to Louis Farrakhan and Al Sharpton. And he opposes a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage--a litmus test for many social conservatives. Friends of McCain say he's interested in running in 2008, but others close to him say he could bow out. "He lives in the moment," says a friend.

Like McCain, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, another 2008 prospect, has a maverick streak, illustrated by his willingness to chide the Bush Administration for being "cavalier" in dealing with allies. But Hagel could be more acceptable to conservatives than McCain. He backed all of Bush's tax cuts and helped lead the Senate opposition to the Kyoto global-warming treaty.

NEW YORKERS Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani campaigned aggressively for President Bush and proved a huge crowd pleaser. His credentials as America's mayor, earned in the aftermath of 9/11, are a plus. As a tax cutter, he's in synch with his party's mainstream on economic issues, and he's a Bush-style hawk on defense, even if he may not be ready for prime time on that front. (He blamed U.S. troops last week for the missing explosives at Iraq's al-Qaqaa facility.) But on social issues, he's on the far left within the G.O.P. as a pro-choice politician who favored giving gay partners of city employees the rights of spouses, such as medical-insurance benefits. For those reasons, says a Republican campaign strategist, "I think he's got a better shot at Veep."

Allies of New York's George Pataki say he's eyeing the 2008 race. Like Giuliani, he's pro abortion rights, and that could make getting the nomination difficult. But as Governor of his state, he would be able to raise serious money. Both Giuliani and Pataki will have to decide whether to challenge Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton when her seat comes up in 2006. If Giuliani or Pataki manages to knock off the Democratic icon, he would be considered a giant slayer within the party. On the other hand, losing to her would probably doom either man's shot at the 2008 presidential nomination.

SENATE CONSERVATIVES Senate Republican leader Bill Frist rose to the position in just his second term and quickly demonstrated that he could enforce the Bush agenda. The Tennessee heart surgeon is also known for his humanitarian missions to Africa--which could help put a more compassionate face on the party. Senator George Allen is well liked by his colleagues--he ran the Senate Republican re-election efforts this year--and was easily elected Governor and then Senator in his native Virginia. He's conservative enough to pass the party's litmus tests on abortion and taxes, and as Governor he enacted popular education and welfare reforms. Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas would be a favorite of religious conservatives. A convert to Catholicism, he has spoken out strongly against abortion rights and gay marriage and has championed the cause of refugees in Sudan, many of whom are Christian.

REAGAN HEIRS Of the past 12 Presidents, five have been Governors--running a state being a good way to showcase executive skills. Mitt Romney is a contender who proved he can reach beyond the party base when he was elected Governor of heavily Democratic Massachusetts in 2002. He has won plaudits from the right for leading the fight against gay marriage there, and he earned national acclaim by stepping in to rescue the 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Romney was brought in to head the organizing committee, which had been plagued by scandal.) Colorado Governor Bill Owens' affable demeanor and big election victories--he won with 63% of the vote in 2002--have made him a much sought-after speaker in the party. He's known as an aggressive tax cutter.

Then there's the candidate who's really close to the President: Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida, who has a 62% approval rating in an important state. The First Brother last month rejected the possibility of running in 2008. But some folks close to him think he might change his mind if he thought it was for the good of the party.

Attorney General John Ashcroft or Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge too could catch the presidential bug. There's always the chance that a Draft Arnold movement could emerge, leading to the speedy passage of a constitutional amendment that would allow the Austrian-born Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, to make a run.

Whoever wants the job, this much is certain: much lies in the hands of George W. Bush. His adviser Karl Rove "will still run the party," says a Republican insider. "Everything from speaking events at state parties to Air Force One rides will go through him." A Bush endorsement could short-circuit the nominating process, just as Bill Clinton's support of Al Gore gave Gore a decided edge in 2000. Or the President could stay steadfastly neutral, as Reagan did in 1988, when his Vice President, George Herbert Walker Bush, faced five challengers and almost lost the nomination.