A CABINET SHUFFLE?

SECRETARY OF STATE?

It's no secret that COLIN POWELL is ready to hang up his pinstripes. But far less clear is where Bush will turn for his new top diplomat. One possibility is JOHN DANFORTH, the current ambassador to the U.N. He has support on Capitol Hill (where he served three terms as Senator from Missouri) and has won praise for pushing the Sudanese close to a peace deal after three years of negotiations. Another candidate is CONDOLEEZZA RICE. As National Security Adviser, she has dealt with virtually every foreign leader who matters but draws her influence more from her proximity to the Oval Office than her ability to hammer out disputes between the Administration's long-divided factions.

NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER?

If RICE checks out, her job too is up for grabs--but only to those who meet two qualifications. They must get along with Bush, and they must win the O.K. of the Vice President. Paul Wolfowitz meets both tests, and the job is a good landing place for him if he leaves Defense, since it does not require Senate confirmation. Also in the running is I. LEWIS (Scooter) LIBBY, Dick Cheney's chief of staff and another Pentagon veteran. The dark-horse candidate is ROBERT BLACKWILL, a hard-nosed dealmaker who has quietly handled Iraqi policy in the past year as a Rice deputy.

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE?

Pentagon insiders expect DONALD RUMSFELD to try to hang on for at least another year. His chances of staying are helped, ironically, by the lack of confirmable alternatives. Deputy Secretary PAUL WOLFOWITZ has been widely criticized for predicting that U.S. troops would be welcomed in Iraq as liberators, and he would have a hard time winning Senate confirmation. CONDOLEEZZA RICE, who is believed to prefer the Pentagon job to Secretary of State, is a more likely choice--unless, as some speculate, she wants a breather from government.

ATTORNEY GENERAL?

Bush aides signaled months ago that JOHN ASHCROFT would be leaving after the election. Whether the sometimes abrasive AG has received the message is not so certain. But Bush has made little secret of his choice to replace him: Georgia lawyer LARRY THOMPSON, an African American who worked as Ashcroft's chief deputy for 2 1/2 years but left because he was feeling ignored and cut out. Bush has twice asked Thompson to travel with him around the country and has even said in public that he will soon be asking Thompson to return to government. Thompson is believed to prefer the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), but he's unlikely to turn down the Attorney General's job if it is offered.

SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY?

Although widely regarded as a friend to business, the President has struggled to find a Treasury boss who has won the respect of Wall Street and the Bush inner circle. JOHN SNOW is expected to remain in place, at least for a while, but it's almost certain that the search will go on. A possible replacement: WILLIAM DONALDSON, the former investment banker who, after a sluggish start as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is beginning to win praise for steering the agency into more aggressive scrutiny of slippery business practices. A Donaldson drawback: he has alienated some Republicans with his calls to increase government regulation of the financial industry.

HOMELAND SECURITY CHIEF?

TOM RIDGE may stay in the job, although the former Pennsylvania Governor and Congressman has told friends that after years in government he would prefer to earn some money in the private sector. If Ridge leaves, his deputy ASA HUTCHISON would be an obvious replacement. The former Arkansas Congressman was a high-profile antagonist to President Clinton during the impeachment hearings. Another option for the job would be LARRY THOMPSON, the former Deputy Attorney General, if he doesn't replace Ashcroft as Attorney General.