Why Not ... a Dynasty?

By Sean Gregory

Maybe it's tempting the fates to even raise the question, inviting a brand-new curse. But could this talented Red Sox team win it all again next year? It won't be easy. In today's era of free agents and salary arbitration, it's almost impossible to build dynasties. For a bit more money, players regularly flee even fun-loving championship teams. In the past three decades, baseball has produced just two mini-dynasties: the 1972-74 Oakland A's and the 1996-2000 New York Yankees. The Red Sox seem particularly vulnerable to market forces: as many as 16 of their players could become free agents this off-season, including pitchers Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, both of whom starred in the playoffs; shortstop Orlando Cabrera, who hit safely in 10 straight postseason games; and catcher Jason Varitek, the clubhouse leader.

Boston's brass, which shelled out $130 million to bankroll this year's team (baseball's second-highest payroll total, after the Yankees' $190 million), pledges that it will continue to be aggressive. But general manager Theo Epstein prides himself on not overpaying for talent. Martinez, who made $17.5 million this year, is likely to seek at least a four-year contract worth some $15 million a year. But is an often injured 33-year-old who can rarely pitch beyond the sixth inning worth all that? "He's replaceable," says an American League general manager. "They can go out and get two quality pitchers for that price."

The Sox will probably come up with the cash to keep Varitek, who guided a weary pitching staff through four straight playoff wins over the Yankees. Cabrera is iffy--he doesn't draw enough walks for number crunchers like Epstein, and several top shortstops are on the market. Lowe, the first pitcher to win the final game in all three playoff rounds, may have thrown his last sinker in Boston. As ESPN analyst (and former New York Mets general manager) Steve Phillips puts it, "He's too high maintenance."

The good news for Sox fans is that core "idiots" like Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar will be back. And as the rival Yankees try to avenge this year's loss, they may find it hard to snap up the usual big names. The Yankees are saddled with multiyear, multimillion-dollar deals for pitchers Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez, two goats of the final league-championship game, and for first baseman Jason Giambi, who is a shell of what he once was. Of course, the Yankees' deep-pocketed owner, George Steinbrenner, can budget through those problems. And Houston's Carlos Beltran, the sexiest free agent on the market, could well be in center field for the Yankees come April, a $100 million asking price be damned. "From where I sit, it's hard to ever say that behemoths like New York and Boston are not in a good position," says the AL general manager. From where the Babe sits, 2005 could be the time to sit back and abandon this whole curse thing. Or maybe he's ready to start vexing Steinbrenner now. --By Sean Gregory