Crunching the Numbers

By MICHAEL DUFFY

Here are a few numbers to chew on with 14 weeks to go in the presidential campaign: a thin plurality of Americans, 49%, thinks the U.S. was wrong to go to war with Iraq. A slightly larger group, 52%, believes the country is on "the wrong track." And, by a tiny fraction more (53%), Americans have decided it's "time for someone else to be President." But despite all that, only 46% of Americans are ready to hand the job to John Kerry.

Those are the daunting findings for both parties from a TIME poll conducted last week, and they help explain how much is riding on Kerry's big moment in Boston on Thursday night. If first impressions matter, Kerry won't get this clear a shot again. While nearly 70% of voters say they know a great deal about Bush, only 29% say the same about the Senator. But many more have their doubts: though Kerry leads Bush 46% to 43% in a three-way matchup with Ralph Nader, who gets 5%, voters say they trust Bush more to handle terrorism and the war in Iraq and "to provide strong leadership in difficult times."

While Bush's base is reinforced concrete, Kerry's still looks shaky in places. Kerry leads Bush among Hispanic voters but has not secured the 2-to-1 ratio Democrats have achieved in the past. In a more worrisome sign, Kerry is winning only 75% of African Americans in a three-way contest, a good dozen points short of what he needs.

But Bush has picked up some permanent scars. Though the President signed a $500 billion prescription-drug plan for Medicare recipients, the poll shows that only 36% of the electorate trusts him on health care. At a time when Bush insists Americans are safer, just 37% of voters agree with him. Besides, Americans are worried less about terrorism than about the economy, and only 44% of voters approve of Bush's performance in that area.

Bush has two other problems: men and young people. He lost ground this spring among voters 18 to 34, who once backed him by large majorities but now favor Kerry at a rate of more than 5 to 4. The President faces a similar challenge with males, who broke 5 to 4 for Bush in 2000 but are evenly splitting their tickets now. All of which points to the thorniest number for Bush in TIME's poll: 43.7% That's the percentage of people who believe he deserves to be re-elected, a figure that pollsters say often tracks a candidate's ultimate showing at the ballot box.

Campaign 2004 could turn out to be a fight for the margins of the margins. The number of undecided voters keeps dwindling--it's now 6%and more than 80% of voters say they will not change their mind. That means both parties will spend about $300 million to win over the roughly 6 million people who have yet to decide. --By Michael Duffy