Monday, May. 31, 2004

Where's The Old Magic?

By J.F.O. McAllister London

George W. Bush arrives in Europe next week to commemorate the glorious victory over fascism that began with D-day, but let's face it: this doesn't feel like a time for celebration. The 60th anniversary of the Atlantic alliance's greatest triumph comes at the lowest point in its history. The inevitable comparison--between the righteous, successful American-led invasion and occupation of Europe and the divisive, troubled American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq--will surely launch a thousand newspaper columns.

When Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair gather in Normandy with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Russia and 10 other countries, all will praise the achievements of history's most durable alliance. But Iraq will never be far from their minds. Bush and Blair saw Iraq as a key battle in the defining struggle of our times--the war on terrorism--but failed to persuade most of their principal allies or the European public. and as most Europeans see it now, the failure to find weapons of mass destruction and the chaos in Iraq have only confirmed the wisdom of their opposition to the war. President Bush does not accept a single element of this critique. Yet his administration, which originally disdained help from countries that doubted him, now would welcome their soldiers and money. But help is not on the way. France and Germany have made it clear that they won't send troops, and last week German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder said he had "doubts" about whether any NATO forces should go. Britain is reluctant to send more soldiers.

All this leaves the alliance in need of medicine much stronger than the bromides likely to be doled out on June 6. If the grand partnership that beat the Nazis and the U.S.S.R. Is going to last, it must find its way to common ground. There's no better place to start the search than Normandy, and no better time than now. The allies meet three times in the next month, not only for mood music in France but also for substance at a g-8 summit on Sea Island, GA., and again at a NATO meeting in Istanbul. George Robertson, the British former NATO secretary-general, says that "with everyone in the same room at the same time, they won't be able to run away from the problems." Don't expect a Marshall Plan for the Middle East by the end of June, but if leaders want to begin healing the alliance, here are a few things they should try.

GET PAST THE ANGER If the ceremonies in Normandy achieve anything, it will be to help stem the rage that continues to poison both sides of the alliance. Iraq isn't the only problem issue; differences have been building since the collapse of the Soviet Union removed the focus of a common threat. And since Bush became President, divergent views on global warming, deference to international law, the "axis of evil" and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have widened the Gulf. Christopher Meyer, former British ambassador to Washington, says the alliance "has lost a lot of the frequency and intimacy of consultation we had during the Cold War. There have always been tensions, but in the past it tended to be a creative tension, and now it's become destructive." Some Attribute the trouble to a fundamental cultural divide. With its huge military power, can-do tradition and tremendous determination to hunt down terrorists since Sept. 11, the U.S. has a different strategic outlook from the European Union, which spends around half of what the U.S. does on defense and wants the U.N. and International Law to have a bigger role in responding to the world's dangers.

Europe Bears its share of the blame for the current angry impasse. Resentment toward Bush has closed European ears to important arguments. Says Pierre Hassner of the Center for International Studies and Research in Paris: "The idea seems to be broadening in Europe that everything is the fault of America. I'm very afraid of the damage done when the ugly American becomes once again such a convenient excuse." Both sides need to cool it. Remembering how things were 60 years ago might help.

TAKE A LOOK BACK The truth is that the alliance has never enjoyed a golden age, not even when fighting Adolf Hitler. Britain stood nearly alone for two years before the U.S. declared war; as Winston Churchill famously said, "you can always rely on America to do the right thing--once it has exhausted the alternatives." Churchill and F.D.R. loathed free French leader Charles de Gaulle, and he loathed them in return. Wartime politicians and officials had volcanic fights about how to handle Joseph Stalin, whether to turn postwar Germany into an agricultural backwater, and whether to put the atom bomb under international control. And things weren't always warm and fuzzy during the cold war either. In 1966 de Gaulle quit the NATO command and kicked out U.S. Troops. It took five years of messy improvisation to get the basic structures of containment in place and four decades before they bore fruit. So if al-Qaeda seems to be gaining and Iraq is on the edge of a quagmire, it doesn't mean the alliance is doomed. It could mean the stage is set for a great comeback, just as in 1944.

REMEMBER THE REAL ENEMIES The good news is that the allies can at least agree on a common threat, the most important glue in any alliance: an Iraq that descends further into anarchy and instability. An aide to French President Jacques Chirac flatly says if "things continue to go badly or go worse, it will have serious consequences for the entire western world." But French officials fear that unless the security presence is recast to shed its occupation image, any foreign troops will be resisted. Spain has withdrawn its troops, and Poland may leave next year. But if--a big if--the coalition can manage to restore stability, The Europeans may then be prepared to help. Germany, which wants a seat on the U.N. Security Council, has launched a trial balloon about sending troops to help patrol U.N. elections penciled in for January. And European businesses will be more than willing to help rebuild the country once the U.N. is in charge.

Though Europe and the U.S. agree on the threat of anarchy in Iraq, they disagree on the response. The Europeans, in the words of the Chirac aide, want "America to reorient itself, the sooner the better" to hand real power to the Iraqis; the U.S. fears that doing so too fast could cause Iraq's interim government to break into competing power centers and fall apart. So agreeing to disagree over Iraq may be the best that can be achieved for now.

CHANGE THE TONE Behind the scenes, cooperation among spies and cops to nab terrorist suspects has improved, and trade talks have shown a healthy give-and-take. But signs of accommodating Europe on fundamental questions are rare. For instance, Bush scarcely consulted Europe in April before upending decades of U.S. policy to endorse Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to hand over Gaza to the Palestinians without negotiation. To get things back on track, says a former senior British official, "Bush will have to eat some humble pie." One way would be to throw himself into a more obviously evenhanded push to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians. And if Bush really wanted to turn heads, he could declare that the U.S. will strictly honor the Geneva conventions in its international network of prisons, and even recognize the international criminal court, where war crimes can be prosecuted and which 24 out of 25 E.U. countries have joined. Europe could contribute to a thaw by backing the U.N. resolution Washington is advancing to lay out lines of authority In Iraq after sovereignty is returned June 30.

While some of America's staunchest supporters find themselves wondering if the U.S. still stands for the values that made them fall in love with it 60 years ago, many Europeans remain willing to look for hopeful signs of rapprochement. Christoph Bertram, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, thinks "we now have an America that needs allies and is much more aware of it." The battle for their hearts and minds is far from over. --With reporting by John F. Dickerson/Washington, James Graff/Paris, Jeff Israely/Rome, Andrew Purvis/Vienna and Charles P. Wallace/Berlin

With reporting by John F. Dickerson/Washington, James Graff/Paris, Jeff Israely/Rome, Andrew Purvis/Vienna and Charles P. Wallace/Berlin