Davis vs. Davis

By Terry McCarthy and Karen Tumulty

California Governor Gray Davis may have a 22% approval rating and the personality of the tofu shakes he drinks every morning, but he has always been a tough campaigner. In the state's unprecedented recall election set for Oct. 7, however, he faces a campaign unlike any he has ever run. Davis has built a career out of persuading people to vote against his opponent--like Bill Simon, the conservative Republican he defeated last November. Now, with voters asked to cast a simple yea or nay on Davis' tenure, he has a more daunting task: persuading people to vote for him.

His strategy is becoming clear: run against the recall effort itself. His private polling has shown voters turn against it when they realize it will cost upwards of $30 million. Davis will also attack the recall as an effort by defeated G.O.P. members to usurp power and carry out a far-right agenda. But while an array of Republicans are lining up to get on the ballot (the top vote getter will replace Davis if he loses), the key for Davis is to keep members of his party on the sidelines. "If a solid Democrat files, it would be a vote of no confidence," says Allen Hoffenblum, a G.O.P. consultant, "and then it ceases being a recall election and becomes a gubernatorial election." Davis has constantly been on the phone with top Democrats like House minority leader Nancy Pelosi and Senator Dianne Feinstein. His hope is that in the two weeks before the Aug. 9 deadline for filing, he will cut a budget deal, nudge his poll numbers higher and thus bolster confidence in the party that he can survive.

If not, one Democrat to watch is Feinstein. "Nothing I know right now interests me in running," she said last week. But that leaves her some wiggle room, should things change. She is more popular in the state than Davis and has long been thought to covet the governorship. (She lost a shot at it in 1990.) She also comes to the race with rare experience. In 1983 when she was mayor of San Francisco, she too faced a recall election. She won handily. --By Terry McCarthy and Karen Tumulty