Why No One Shoots Straight on Guns

By KAREN TUMULTY

When it comes to guns, politicians are figuring out what clay pigeons have known for a long time: it's safer to be a moving target. So it is that President Bush can win points with gun-control groups by sticking to his campaign promise to sign an extension on the assault-weapons ban when it expires next year, while House majority leader Tom DeLay can make the gun lobby happy by suggesting, as he did last week, that no such bill will ever reach Bush's desk. And Democrats can fuss and fume over how Bush and the Republicans are trying to have it both ways--while quietly breathing a sigh of relief at being spared a vote that would expose the party's own divisions on the issue.

The pantomime will continue, for behind it lies a new reality: two years into the Bush Administration, the gun lobby is on a winning streak. Bill Clinton muscled through the most significant new gun laws in 30 years, including the 1994 assault-weapons ban and the 1993 Brady Law, requiring background checks for gun buyers. But gun groups got some revenge in the 2000 election, when they were credited with costing Al Gore at least three states, including his home, Tennessee.

Most of the gains for the gun lobby have been quiet ones. Attorney General John Ashcroft has expanded the government's view of the Second Amendment, stating explicitly that it protects an individual's right to possess and bear arms--a departure from the longstanding view that this right was limited to state militias. Ashcroft has also proposed shortening the length of time the FBI is required to keep records of background checks. He wants it reduced to a single business day; the Clinton Administration required 90. And while the National Rifle Association wasn't pleased with Bush's statements in support of the assault-weapons ban, no one expects the President to lobby for it. At the same time, Bush has promised to sign the NRA's top priority: legislation that would shield gunmakers and dealers from lawsuits.

Part of the reason for the gun lobby's success is that the political landscape shifted right after 9/11, when the nation lost its sense of security and gun sales soared. Whereas married women were long thought to be the constituency most sympathetic to new restrictions on guns, they were the group most supportive of allowing pilots to be armed in the cockpit, according to focus groups conducted by Republican pollster David Winston.

Many Democrats are nervous about putting the gun issue on the front burner. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi called upon Bush to pressure G.O.P. House leaders to bring the extension of the ban to the floor, but she conceded that Democratic leaders would be leery of strong-arming their own members on such a sensitive issue. "We would probably lose some votes," she said. When guns came up during the first debate among the 2004 Democratic presidential contenders earlier this month, the candidates--with the exception of Al Sharpton--were virtually silent.

That's a significant change from the last presidential campaign, when Gore proposed licensing gun owners. Back then, whenever Bush was asked about guns, he contended that what's needed is not new gun laws but enforcement of existing ones. However, a study last week by Americans for Gun Safety--a relatively moderate gun-control group that does not support licensing gun owners or registering their weapons--found that the Bush Administration has done little better than its predecessor at prosecuting those who break gun laws. The group found that of the 25,002 federal firearms cases over the past three years, fully 85% were for violations of just two statutes--illegal possession by a felon or another prohibited buyer and possession of a firearm during a violent or drug-related crime. The remaining 20 major federal gun laws, which include statutes designed to keep weapons out of the hands of children, are rarely enforced. The Justice Department disputed the study, saying many prosecutions have been shifted to state and local jurisdictions, some of which have tougher penalties.

It is on the enforcement issue that some Democrats think they may have found an opening to talk about guns again. But no one is very eager. Taking aim on the gun issue is one thing; pulling the trigger is another.