Ripples Across The Region

By Jeffrey Kluger and Scott MacLeod

The U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan are the big players in the current crisis, but when the shells start landing, the entire Middle East community will be shaken. What do various countries stand to lose--or gain--when the fighting begins?

--By Jeffrey Kluger and Scott MacLeod

PAKISTAN

It could get nasty here. Pakistan's ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, has agreed to share intelligence with the U.S. and allow American planes to use his airspace. Islamabad would rather not let U.S. forces launch assaults from Pakistani soil, but it's certain Washington wants that too. Even before Musharraf tried to sell his plan in a televised address last week, the response was mixed, with at least one call for a jihad against the U.S. military and Musharraf himself, alongside support from Pakistani moderates. Musharraf says that refusal to cooperate could endanger Pakistan's security and economy, while cooperation would lead to the country's re-emergence as a "responsible and dignified nation."

POPULATION 145 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 97%

PER CAPITA GDP $2,000

SAUDI ARABIA

One of three countries (along with Pakistan and, until recently, the United Arab Emirates) to recognize the Taliban government, Saudi Arabia is in the hot seat. The U.S. military, which encamped in the nation during the Gulf War, has still not left. King Fahd welcomes it, but fundamentalists are furious--to say nothing of Osama bin Laden, a native Saudi and son of a Yemeni immigrant. Things got touchy last week when the U.S. asked for permission to launch strikes from a new Saudi air base and the Saudis, for now at least, balked. If a war places Saudi oil reserves at risk, the U.S. may dig in deeper, perhaps lighting fundamentalist fires.

POPULATION 23 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 100%

PER CAPITA GDP $10,500

EGYPT

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak understands the dangers of inflaming Muslim extremists. It will be 20 years ago next week that Egyptian militants assassinated President Anwar Sadat. The leader of the group responsible is an ally of Osama bin Laden. Mubarak has no desire to play so open a role in the upcoming war as to anger extremists, but he can probably contain any problem. Egyptian security forces have kept a reasonably good choke hold on domestic terrorists. And U.S. aid, flowing since the days of the Camp David accords, ensures continued ties with Washington. Cairo will probably support anything that leads to a quick peace and revival of the devastated tourist industry.

POPULATION 70 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 94%

PER CAPITA GDP $3,600

JORDAN

Things could get dicey for young King Abdullah, Jordan's inexperienced ruler. Islamic hard-liners already have a presence in the Jordanian parliament, entirely apart from the healthy grass-roots presence they enjoy in the country as a whole. Jordan, whose population is 65% Palestinian by birth or descent, experienced street demonstrations during the recent fighting between Israel and the Palestinians. If the U.S. broadens the scope of its upcoming military action and decides to tackle Iraq or Lebanon as well, Abdullah could see plenty of anger in his streets. Containing the unrest will be essential if he hopes to keep his rule intact.

POPULATION 5 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 92%

PER CAPITA GDP $3,500

SYRIA

In recent years, there has been no particular warmth between Damascus and Washington, with the U.S. including Syria on its list of states that formally sponsor terrorism, and Syria making no secret of its anti-American feelings. But Syria stood with the U.S. during the Gulf War and will probably continue trying to curry Washington's favor. For President Bashar Assad, staying in control of this impoverished country is a full-time job, requiring the work of extensive security and intelligence forces. Assad is Alawite; his tribe represents less than 12% of Syria's population. A popular revolution fueled by Islamic extremism could topple his dynasty. So far, however, he's kept that fury in check.

POPULATION 17 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 74 %

PER CAPITA GDP $3,100

IRAN

In a world of unprecedented alliances, Tehran and Washington could find themselves getting cozy. Iran's Shi'ite Muslims despise the Taliban's Sunnis, and would like nothing more than to see Afghanistan's rulers removed without having to spill Iranian blood. The old hatred between the U.S. and Iran has grown tired, and both have been looking for ways to establish better ties without losing face. A U.S. war against the Taliban could help President Mohammed Khatami restore relations without looking as if Iran had come begging. But the price for friendship could be high: Tehran may have to agree to dismantle its terrorist networks, and will have to learn to live without hatred of the great U.S. Satan as a rallying cry.

POPULATION 66 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 99%

PER CAPITA GDP $6,300

IRAQ

Baghdad set a particularly nasty tone when Iraq became the only country to publicly applaud the attacks in the U.S. Stories swirled that Iraqi intelligence might have been involved, but so far nothing has been proved. Saddam Hussein will win this time only if the U.S. loses. No friend of Muslim extremists, Hussein has repeatedly attacked groups in his country. If U.S. actions against bin Laden lead to an Arab backlash against Washington, Iraq could help lead it, perhaps building better ties with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in the process. But if the U.S. succeeds in the main event in Afghanistan, the already deployed military may decide to turn west and clean up some unfinished business in Iraq.

POPULATION 23 million

PERCENT MUSLIM 97%

PER CAPITA GDP $2,500