Rumors Of His Demise...

By Tim Padgett With Reporting By Michael Peltier/Tallahassee And Patrick Oppmann/Miami

During the Florida recount fiasco, which Tallahassee Republicans call "the recent unpleasantness," national pundits consigned Governor Jeb Bush to the chad heap of history. They clucked last month when he fought with his brother the President over oil drilling off Florida's Gulf Coast (W. wants to; Jeb does not). And they dished last week when Jeb denounced the "sickening" (and apparently unfounded) rumor that he'd had an affair with a state official, once a Playboy bunny.

The talking heads can't explain the polls' giving Bush a 56% approval rating, down just 3% from before the recount. No wonder Bush, who has become the Garbo of politics, doesn't bother talking to Big Media. The rumor mongering left him irritated enough last week that he interpreted an innocuous question as an attack. When a TIME reporter noted that his popularity was proving the pundits wrong, Bush became testy. "Who sent you here?" he asked.

No offense, Governor. And, to repeat: Jeb Bush still has a career. "There's a real disjoint between the op-ed pages and people on the street about Jeb," says Susan McManus, a political analyst at the University of South Florida in Tampa. Since W. and Jeb are two of the most powerful political brothers since Jack and Bobby Kennedy, Jeb's apparent durability is bad news for Democrats who hope to cut W. down by unseating Jeb in next year's Governor's race.

Bush is expected to announce his candidacy next month. The only obstacle, friends say, would be his wife Columba's unease with the political circus. If he does run, he'll be tough to beat. His drive to make Florida schools more accountable has yielded higher test scores. And many voters have begun to move beyond the recount, not only because most of the Miami Herald's recent analysis confirmed W.'s victory, but also because Jeb this month delivered on his promise of electoral reform. Starting next year, Florida will replace the punch-card and butterfly ballots with statewide optical scanning.

Bush's numbers aren't high enough to keep at least 10 state Democrats from fighting for the right to challenge him. Even former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno said last week that she's considering it. Many blacks and Jews still blame him for disenfranchising them last November. As state revenues are shrinking, Republicans have cut his $313 million tax-cut plan almost in half this month, and his government downsizing efforts have sparked state-employee demonstrations. "Jeb's conservative agenda is remarkably out of touch with the majority of Floridians," says Democratic Congressman Jim Davis, a possible challenger.

Bush has said he has no desire to be President or even a Senator. He claims he's not a national figure; friends say he doesn't want to step into W.'s spotlight. During the offshore-drilling dispute, when reporters asked if Jeb could lick W. in a fight, Jeb smiled and let down his guard. "The Secret Service," he said, "might not let me near him right now."

--By Tim Padgett. With reporting by Michael Peltier/Tallahassee and Patrick Oppmann/Miami