Barak's Cagey Resignation

By Matt Rees/Jerusalem

It was the last political maneuver Ehud Barak had to pull out of his hat. Behind in the polls, facing revolts in the parliament and within his own party, Israel's Prime Minister announced his resignation Saturday night, only 17 months into his term. Israelis will have to choose a new Prime Minister in two months--a vote that will have major repercussions on chances for resurrecting the peace process with the Palestinians.

Barak predicted he would win that special election, earning himself a "new mandate" to push ahead with his plans for a peace deal. Winning won't gain him much, though, because the same fractious and fragmented Knesset remains in place. In two months, Barak could find himself back to square one, trying to cobble together a coalition with right-wing and religious politicians without alienating the doves in his own party.

The most notable thing about this election will be the man who can't run in it--former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Bibi" has been preparing for a tilt at Barak since he was cleared of corruption charges in the fall. If the Knesset had been able to call general elections, as it was in the process of doing, Netanyahu could have challenged Likud leader Ariel Sharon for the right-wing spot to oppose Barak.

Polls show that Netanyahu would have trounced Barak. But Israeli election law mandates that in a special election, only members of the Knesset can run. That gives hope to Barak, who has a much better chance of beating the old warhorse Sharon. The short election cycle also makes it less likely that the rebellious left of Barak's Labor Party will oust him in favor of one of his critics, such as Knesset speaker Avraham Burg. "It's the only way for Barak to survive, because he knocks Netanyahu out," says Reuven Chazan, a Hebrew University political scientist. "But in the long term, he gains nothing."

The election jockeying begins in earnest this week. Sharon, 72, could face opposition within his party from several colleagues, including former Finance Minister Meir Sheetrit and the popular rising star of the right, Silvan Shalom. Netanyahu's supporters may also try a parliamentary maneuver to push for a general election, undercutting Barak's anti-Bibi move.

The violent confrontation with the Palestinians is sure to be at the center of the election. Barak's move dashes what little hope Washington had left of salvaging a peace deal before the end of President Bill Clinton's term. "Certainly, reaching a final-status agreement will be impossible," says a senior White House official.

In his press conference, Barak told Israelis there was no alternative to the kind of negotiated settlement with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat that he nearly concluded at Camp David last July. Though Israelis have lost all faith in Arafat, Barak is gambling that they won't want to turn their backs entirely on the prospect of a peace deal. A vote for Sharon, Barak's campaign will say, means just that.

--By Matt Rees/Jerusalem. With reporting by Douglas Waller/ Washington

With reporting by DOUGLAS WALLER/WASHINGTON