The Four Big Differences

By Mitch Frank and Andrew Goldstein

It is easy to believe that politicians always break their promises, that what they say now won't matter after the election. But numerous studies show that in the past 40 years more than two-thirds of the promises made by presidential candidates during a campaign were enacted in some form once they were elected. So we aren't just electing a personality--we're choosing an agenda. And on four critical issues, the differences between Bush and Gore are big. Here they are:

BUSH

TAXES

PLAN: Devote more than a third of the projected surplus--$1.6 trillion--to tax cuts, including a broad cut for all income brackets. Double the child tax credit, give a credit to married couples regardless of whether they pay the marriage penalty, and repeal the estate tax.

IMPACT: Nearly everyone gets a tax cut--particularly the wealthiest third of taxpayers. The long-term effect is cloudy: Bush argues that his cuts will encourage the economy to keep growing, but the cuts could lead to inflation, and if things turn sour, ballooning deficits could return. And Congress is currently spending a fifth of the surplus.

THE SUPREME COURT

PLAN: Appoint Justices (there will probably be two or more openings in the next four years) like Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas who look to the intent of the Founding Fathers when interpreting the Constitution.

IMPACT: Abortion will probably remain legal, but with more limitations. Vouchers for religious schools could be found constitutional, and the court could allow some prayer in schools. Affirmative action may be struck down or further limited, as could many federal laws that encroach upon state power, such as the Clean Air and Water Acts and the Americans with Disabilities Act.

HEALTH CARE

PLAN: Give uninsured families a $2,000 tax credit to help purchase insurance. Pass a patients' bill of rights with a restricted right to sue HMOs. Turn Medicare into an insurance subsidy, giving seniors money for private insurance and prescription-drug coverage.

IMPACT: A patients' bill with such a limited right to sue keeps lawsuits from driving costs up but leaves patients little recourse if HMOs don't play fair. Privatizing Medicare will help cure its long-term financial troubles, but it risks creating a class system: full coverage for wealthy and low-income seniors, while those in the middle struggle to afford plans with prescription coverage.

SOCIAL SECURITY

PLAN: Use about half the Social Security surplus--roughly $1 trillion--to allow young workers to invest one-sixth of their payroll taxes in private accounts.

IMPACT: Depends on the stock market. The $1 trillion price tag means the program may go bankrupt 10 years earlier; to cover the cost, Bush will have to cut benefits. If the market continues its historical rate of return of 7% a year (or even if it gains a more modest 5% a year), such cuts would be painless because the private-account nest egg for most future beneficiaries would more than equal the benefits they would receive under the current system. But there's no benefit floor to protect losers.

GORE

[TAXES]

PLAN: Reserve roughly 10% of the surplus--$480 billion--for tax cuts targeted to low- and middle-income Americans. These include credits for college tuition, preschool, care for an elderly parent, fuel-efficient cars and retirement-savings accounts.

IMPACT: The smaller tax cuts are less likely to undermine the surplus. But their targeted nature means not everyone gets a cut and leaves doubts about the total price tag. For example, if enough people take advantage of the savings accounts, the 10-year cost rises $400 billion beyond what Gore has budgeted.

[THE SUPREME COURT]

PLAN: Appoint Justices like Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg who interpret the Constitution broadly, relying as much on the principles underlying granted rights as on the intent of the words themselves.

IMPACT: Abortion will most likely remain a constitutional right, and future legislative restrictions on abortion could be struck down. Affirmative action will probably remain legal, and the court will be more likely to recognize homosexual rights. Federal power may be allowed to broaden, permitting laws that tighten gun control, expand environmental protections and monitor food and drug production.

[HEALTH CARE]

PLAN: Insure more low- and middle-income children through the Children's Health Insurance Program, and allow CHIP parents to buy subsidized coverage. Pass a patients' bill of rights with the right to sue. Add a prescription benefit to Medicare, and lock away $435 billion to ensure that it stays solvent.

IMPACT: More children would be insured through the CHIP program, but only if states improve their record of implementing the plan. The prescription benefit would reach all seniors, but nothing is done to reform Medicare and trim its long-term costs, which could eventually bankrupt the program.

[SOCIAL SECURITY]

PLAN: Use the entire Social Security surplus and other revenues to pay down the $3.5 trillion national debt by 2012, then devote the savings in interest payments (more than $200 billion annually) to Social Security. Give workers matching funds to encourage them to build their own private savings accounts.

IMPACT: Should extend the program's solvency through 2054, and will encourage private saving. But the plan exacerbates the long-term problem: an increasingly large share of tax dollars that must be spent on Social Security benefits.

--By Mitch Frank and Andrew Goldstein