Where the Search Begins

By Massimo Calabresi

Figuring out who is responsible for the attack on the Cole promises to be a difficult process. Counterterrorism officials in Washington say they will divide their likely targets into three categories. The first key group will be indigenous Yemeni factions that are known for occasional lawlessness but are difficult to track.

Most notable among these is the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, an extremist organization once led by Zein Al-Abideen al-Mehdar, a.k.a. Abu Hassan, who was sentenced to death for kidnapping 16 Western tourists and executed on Oct. 17, 1999.

The Aden-Abyan Islamic Army is not on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations but is emblematic of the many groups operating in Yemen, organizations that counterterrorism officials say combine extremist ideology with the pragmatic business of extorting foreign companies and kidnapping tourists. Two such groups--previously unknown--have claimed responsibility for the attack.

The second category is organizations opposed to the peace process. The primary candidates include Hamas, Hizballah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Hamas and the P.I.J. have representatives in Yemen who raise money and rally support for their cause. Hizballah is suspected of attacks in neighboring Saudi Arabia. All three have been busier in the past few weeks, seeking to parlay Middle East tension into a tactical opportunity, say counterterrorism officials.

The third category is what experts call Jihadists, groups ideologically aligned with Osama bin Laden and guided by his 1998 fatwa, which called for a holy war against Israel and the U.S. These groups, mainly Bin Laden's al Qaeda and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, are known to operate in Yemen. The two are among the best trained and funded on the U.S. watch list.

Counterterrorism officials stress that there is no immediate evidence pointing to any of these groups. But the Cole attack would have been a feather in the cap of any of them. Now, the U.S. must be worried that they are after even bloodier decoration. --By Massimo Calabresi