Check, Mate?

By Massimo Calabresi/Washington

They bombed him. They negotiated with him. They isolated him. For years the Americans tried just about everything they could to get rid of Slobodan Milosevic. And when he emerged from last year's 78-day NATO bombing campaign still in power, U.S. officials were left scratching their heads, wondering what it would take to get rid of the guy. So they reached for their checkbooks. Over the past year, the U.S. has spent about $40 million to support Yugoslavia's independent media, trade unions and civic groups and to boost the U.S.-friendly President Milo Djukanovic of Montenegro via the U.S. Agency for International Development and other agencies. That money, the Administration says, helped build the opposition that was key to bringing Milosevic down.

It helped here but will it work elsewhere--say, Iraq? Some are skeptical that fostering civil society is the best way to bring down a tyrant, arguing that it is often effective only when combined with strong sanctions and, occasionally, force. Among the strongest critics of the U.S. program in Serbia was Vojislav Kostunica, who publicly scorned Western money as outside interference (though his coalition partners were big recipients). And using cash to embolden an opposition can be a tricky business, especially if it slips into support for covert action. Critics say the millions the U.S. has dumped on the troubled Iraqi opposition in exile have produced no results.

The question of how to unseat tyrants gets to the heart of one of the thorniest foreign policy questions: How do you deal with states that refuse to play by the rules that govern everyone else? Inside the State Department, a dedicated group of "democracy first" proponents argue that the lesson of Serbia is clear: encourage democracy, and you grease the bad guy's fall. Serbia's transformation is encouraging. And though one election does not a democracy make, last week's moving events will provide a powerful argument for those like Madeleine Albright and others in the Clinton Administration who believe the U.S. can be successful in promoting democracy overseas. --By Massimo Calabresi/Washington