The Main Event

By Mitch Frank

Iowa? Michigan? Mere warm-ups for a national primary on March 7 that stretches from New York to California. With different rules in each state, Bush and McCain face 11 grueling rounds that Tuesday, with 554 of the 2,066 G.O.P. delegates at stake.

CALIFORNIA [Open to all voters; only G.O.P. votes count] 162 DELEGATES

The ultimate prize. While McCain is gaining in L.A. and the Bay Area, he's still weak in G.O.P. areas like Orange County and the Central Valley. Democrats and independents can vote, but only Republicans count toward delegates. The top G.O.P vote getter wins them all. McCain has persuaded almost 22,000 Dems and indies to join the G.O.P.

CONNECTICUT [Open only to G.O.P. voters] 25 DELEGATES

Bush has a Texas drawl, but he was born here, and his grandfather represented the state in the U.S. Senate. Still, Connecticut got onboard the Straight Talk Express early. Before South Carolina and Michigan voted, polls showed McCain surging to a 13-point lead. The state is winner-take-all, so that's 25 delegates in one swoop.

GEORGIA [Open to all registered voters] 54 DELEGATES

The only Southern state up for grabs on March 7, Georgia has been virtually ignored by the candidates. Voters are socially conservative, so Bush has the advantage. But the primary is open, and like South Carolina, it's winner-take-all by congressional district, allowing McCain to snag some delegates in the more moderate, urban districts.

MAINE [Open only to G.O.P. voters] 14 DELEGATES

Voters here have an independent streak--Ross Perot beat Bush's dad in '92. Maine tends to reject the conservative wing of the G.O.P., and may like McCain's moderate tone. This is a closed primary, though indies can register as Republicans at the polls, provided they don't change affiliation again for three months.

MARYLAND [Open to G.O.P. voters and independents] 31 DELEGATES

There are several factors favoring McCain here. Republicans are mostly moderate, and independents can vote in this open primary. Plus, McCain's alma mater in Annapolis keeps plenty of Navy folks in the state. Delegates are allocated by district, but McCain should win most, if not all, making this another good Eastern state.

MASS. [Open to G.O.P. voters and independents] 37 DELEGATES

In this solidly Democratic state, nearly 26,000 Dems have changed their registration to Republican or independent since McCain won New Hampshire. That's because only those two can vote in the primary. Bush has the Governor and party behind him. But the latest poll puts McCain up 27 points.

MISSOURI [Open to all registered voters] 35 DELEGATES

Bush is still winning G.O.P.ers 2 to 1, but this is another open primary. Unlike in Michigan, however, McCain may lose a few indies in Bill Bradley's childhood state. Swing voters here tend to be Catholic Democrats--union members in a heavily Catholic state. Many have not taken Bush's Bob Jones performance very well.

NEW YORK [Open only to G.O.P. voters] 101 DELEGATES

N.Y. Republicans are moderate, but N.Y. politics is machine politics, and it's Bush's machine. The party almost kept McCain off the ballot. But ever since Bush's Southern right turn, McCain's support has grown. Recent polls have the two in a dead heat. Voters cast ballots for delegates rather than the candidates themselves.

OHIO [Open to all registered voters] 69 DELEGATES

In this open primary, Reagan Dems in Cleveland may help McCain, while social conservatives near Cincinnati could flock to Bush. The party is behind Bush (with the exception of Senator Mike DeWine) and has hinted it may enforce rules requiring voters who want a G.O.P. ballot to sign an affidavit swearing allegiance to the party in November.

RHODE ISLAND [Open to G.O.P. voters and independents] 14 DELEGATES

In this liberal state, less than 3% of the population voted in the last G.O.P. primary. But independents--who make up half the population-- can vote here, and they are overwhelmingly supporting McCain. Despite consistently Democratic votes in presidential races for years, polls show McCain handily beating Gore while Bush lags behind.

VERMONT [Open to all registered voters] 12 DELEGATES

This is an open primary in a state that's fiercely independent and downright liberal (its one Congressman is socialist). Democrats far outnumber Republicans, which could mean a large Democrat and independent crossover vote for McCain. He should also like his chances in a state with its own strong campaign-finance laws.

JOHN MCCAIN

PAST VICTORIES New Hampshire, Arizona, Michigan

DELEGATE COUNT 95 As of Feb. 25 1,034 needed to secure nomination

GEORGE W. BUSH

PAST VICTORIES Iowa, Alaska, Delaware, South Carolina

DELEGATE COUNT 57 As of Feb. 25 1,034 needed to secure nomination

Written by Mitch Frank