Fire Wall or Just Fire?

By Michael Duffy/Lansing

Michigan Governor John Engler has done everything he could to gift wrap the G.O.P. nomination for George W. Bush. He banged the drum for Bush with his fellow Governors and got 18 of them to endorse the Texan early last year. He helped Bush write his education proposal and then pitched in to sell it. And in a move Engler thought would secure more than just the nomination, he moved up his state primary by a month, to Feb. 22, so that Michigan would be the real fire wall--the place where Bush's rivals would flame out for good. Engler would see to that himself. As he told TIME last December, "I'm solid asbestos."

But with every new poll from South Carolina last week, Engler's behind-the-scenes work seemed to be increasingly in jeopardy. On Wednesday, after a long day of campaigning for Bush across Michigan, Engler realized that rebellious Republicans may not be his only problem--or even his main one. At a cheerleading dinner in Muskegon (his second on behalf of Bush that night), Engler held up a letter from the newest force in Michigan politics: an outfit called DOGG (Detroiters Out to Get even with Governor Engler). Written by a Democratic state representative, the letter asked 200 Detroit clergymen to urge their mostly Democratic congregations to vote for John McCain in the Republican primary next week. Engler implored his audience to fight back: "We can't let Democrats decide who the Republican nominee is going to be in Michigan."

And yet as Bill Bradley might say, it can happen. The Michigan vote, coming just three days after South Carolina, is not really a Republican primary at all; it's another free-for-all in which Democrats and independents can vote if they want to, and they apparently do. Normally, about 500,000 Republicans turn out for contested G.O.P. primaries, but Bush's top organizer, Del Chenault, believes this year's turnout will be closer to 800,000 and that "almost all" the extras will be, well, not Republicans.

The mob of party crashers is one reason McCain is suddenly running neck and neck with Bush in Michigan polls. But another is that many of the newcomers may be united nearly as much by their dislike of Engler as by their excitement about McCain. The Governor has annoyed a lot of Michiganders since he was first elected in 1990, and he is finding that he is almost as big an issue in the upcoming primary as the candidates. Residents of Detroit are unhappy with the way the state took over the school board and eliminated a residency requirement for city employees. Some public school teachers don't like the way Engler pushed through 173 charter schools. And Democratic-leaning union officials just want to make a little trouble. Though the officials insist they aren't organizing turn-out-the-vote crusades, a top Lansing labor figure told TIME last week, "To the degree we can bloody Bush up and make Engler look bad, heck, that's good for us and the nation."

Engler has been one of the country's steadiest Governors in the past 10 years, driving his party down innovative highways on education and welfare, and managing in the process to get re-elected twice. But when it comes to presidential politics, Engler has had a shakier hand. In 1996 he withheld his endorsement of Bob Dole until it was too late to be important and then imagined that Dole might consider him for the vice presidency anyway. This time around Engler was determined to be a player from the start and he lined up behind Bush in 1998. "[Engler] learned from his mistakes," says attorney Richard McLellan, an Engler ally in Lansing. "He got on board with Bush early this time. We're going to find out if he got on board too early."

The Governor might have an easier time handling the McCain surge if he were not in a wrestling match with his own party. For months the powerful (and very Republican) DeVos family of Grand Rapids has backed an initiative that will be on the ballot this fall that would amend the Michigan constitution to permit spending public money on private schools. Engler, who rode into office preaching school choice, opposes the measure, in part because it will drive up the Democratic turnout in November. The DeVos family, which has given thousands to the G.O.P. in soft money, broke with Engler over the issue two weeks ago, when Betsy DeVos resigned as state G.O.P. chair. Engler quickly stopped the bleeding: he got Bush's father to call DeVos and ask for her help; she endorsed George W. last Tuesday night. But the split over vouchers remains.

Then there is the question of whether Engler still commands a powerful machine. Engler's troops have phone banks in all 83 counties and cells of farmers, cops and pro-lifers to man them. They plan to place 600,000 telephone calls in the next week. Normally, that might seal it for Bush in Michigan, but as Engler is discovering, this may not be a normal year.