A MONARCH IN NAME ONLY

By Kevin Fedarko

The end of an era has arrived in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and the anchor of the Arab world--although the Saudis themselves will not say it. Since 1982 the country has been ruled by the formidable King Fahd, 75, a reliable friend to the U.S. who could be counted on to maintain stability in his kingdom. But Fahd's health has deteriorated ever since he suffered an embolic stroke last November, and a tug-of-war is already ongoing at the highest levels of the government. Although the King has tried to cling to his throne, senior diplomats in Riyadh expect that he will soon leave the country permanently. This de facto abdication will place authority in the hands of Fahd's half brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, 73, and various members of the royal family are competing for favor under him. Abdullah is a devout Muslim whose attitude toward the U.S. and the West is notably cooler than Fahd's.

After his stroke, Fahd transferred power to Abdullah for six weeks and then announced he was resuming his duties, but he has never really done so. He remains bed-ridden and in excruciating pain from back problems and arthritic knees. More alarming, his mind is failing, and his doctors do not believe he will ever recover. "His behavior has been stubborn, bizarre and unpredictable," says a diplomat. "There has been a decline to the point where essentially most of the time he is in a state of dementia." Often, the King does not even know where he is. "Basically, he has no short-term memory," says this source. "There are stories of his speaking to a brother or a son. This person will leave the room, and a few seconds later Fahd will ask, 'Who was that?'"

The Saudis' problem has been to arrange an abdication that does not look like one, since an overt abdication could be destabilizing. The solution is to send Fahd off to permanent convalescence at his summer palace in Marbella, Spain. When Fahd is out of the country, Abdullah acts as regent. "What we are seeing," says a diplomat, "are the last days of King Fahd." Says another: "You can assume that if he winds up in Marbella, he is not going back to Saudi Arabia. It will be the Saudi way of handling the fact that Fahd is no longer up to the job."

Three times during the past month, Fahd's considerable entourage of doctors, nurses, advisers, relatives, friends and servants has been dispatched to the airport for an overseas flight, only to be told to return to the royal palace. The sudden changes in plan apparently result from the determination of Fahd's closest relatives to secure their positions in the new order before the King is sent away.

During Fahd's 14-year reign, he and his full brothers, called the "Sudairi Seven" after their mother, acquired enormous power within the ruling family. Prince Sultan and Prince Naif, for example, head up the Ministries of Defense and Interior. Before they allow Fahd to pass from the scene, these men want their privileges assured. In particular, Sultan wants Abdullah to designate him the next heir apparent, his right by tradition. Says a source: "The Fahd faction is saying, 'O.K., he goes, but not until our positions are safe and secure.'" Thus Fahd's departure will be a sign that the negotiations about who holds power in the new Saudi era will have concluded.

--By Kevin Fedarko. Reported by Scott MacLeod/Paris

With reporting by SCOTT MACLEOD/PARIS