TAIWAN'S SECOND MIRACLE

By Richard Hornik

IN 1949 WHEN MAO ZEDONG'S COMMUnist forces pushed Chiang Kai-shek's regime off mainland China and drove it to Taiwan, few expected the resource-poor province to thrive. Nevertheless, in its new home, the Republic of China has become one of East Asia's "economic miracles," with a per capita GNP today of $12,500. Even that transformation, though, is less startling than Taiwan's political revolution, culminating last Saturday in the presidential election. Voters ignored missile rattling from the mainland and gave current President Lee Teng-hui a strong mandate. He won 54% of the vote, more than twice that of his nearest rival. It was the first time the people of Taiwan had directly elected their leader--indeed, it was the first time a head of state had been popularly elected in the 4,000 years of Chinese civilization.

Less than two decades ago, Taiwan's political system closely paralleled that of the mainland, a strict, authoritarian regime ruled by a single party whose structure was copied from the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in the 1920s. Following his flight from the mainland, Chiang's martial-law regime banned opposition parties. Dissidents were jailed or went into exile, and newspapers and the broadcast media were tightly controlled. But Chiang's son and successor, Chiang Ching-kuo, opened the political system, lifting martial law in 1987. Lee succeeded him in 1988 and continued the reforms, holding the first parliamentary elections in 1992. Finally, with the direct presidential election, the move to democracy was complete.

Officials in Beijing admit that the war games China has conducted near Taiwan over the past few weeks were meant to persuade Taiwan voters to shun any candidate advocating independence for Taiwan instead of the view that it is an integral part of China. That criticism was aimed directly at Lee, even though he has never directly questioned Taiwan's status as part of China. Lee's government has sought a more prominent role for Taiwan around the world, leading to suspicions that he might favor independence.

Lee's real sin in Beijing's eyes may have been to give the lie to the common assertion of Asia's authoritarian regimes that East Asian cultures and de-mocracy do not mix. The element of Lee's platform that most disturbed the mainland was the powerful campaign slogan telling voters, "You're the boss." Says an Asian diplomat in Beijing: "Mainlanders are bound to ask, 'If the Taiwanese could directly elect their leaders, why can't we?'" This fear of democratic contagion comes at a difficult time for the Chinese leadership. While the Taiwanese people elected their President directly, China's political elite is struggling behind the scenes over who will succeed Deng Xiaoping.

The authority of China's President, Jiang Zemin, will be under threat indefinitely, but the electoral victory should provide Lee with a solid political base. The next milestone will be his inaugural speech in May, when he may propose new talks with Beijing, and most experts believe the offer will be accepted. The Chinese may detest Lee, but he is the popular leader of a land that is prosperous, stable and free, and they will have to deal with him for years to come.

--Reported by Sandra Burton and Donald Shapiro/Taipei and Jaime A. FlorCruz/Beijing

With reporting by SANDRA BURTON AND DONALD SHAPIRO/TAIPEI AND JAIME A. FLORCRUZ/BEIJING