IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT STARTS

By Michael Duffy/Des Moines

COULD THE REPUBLICAN RACE COME to an end before it even gets started? Americans normally don't think about presidential primaries until New Hampshire voters narrow the contest to an intelligible two- or three-man race. But Campaign 1996 is already anything but normal. The leading contenders for the G.O.P. nomination are massing their troops for a possibly decisive showdown on Feb. 12 in Iowa. Bob Dole is moving organizers and money into the state in the hope of finishing off his chief rival, Senator Phil Gramm of Texas. Gramm is pouring resources into Iowa as well, but his goal is merely to fight to a draw, or come surprisingly close, to survive through New Hampshire's contest eight days later. If Dole succeeds, complains the struggling Lamar Alexander, the G.O.P. race will be decided even before voters in the rest of the country take notice. Says he: "It'll be over."

Already on a short calendar, the race has been compressed further by three unanticipated developments. First is Dole's continued strength, even after Colin Powell's decision not to run. Though Dole trails Bill Clinton by as much as 19 points in two-way polling matchups, Dole towers over his Republican rivals by 30 points or more in key states and national polls. The second factor is Steve Forbes, the publishing magnate, who has jumped into second place in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire on the strength of his TV and radio ads. Those developments have combined to create a third: a sharp slowdown in contributions to Alexander and Gramm. As a result, Iowa has become an opportunity for Dole--and a make-or-break moment for nearly everyone else.

If Dole has a worry, it is the shallowness of his support among the state's conservatives. Campaign manager Scott Reed expects 40% of caucus-goers to be social or religious conservatives, twice the percentage that participated when Dole won in 1988. Reed's goal is for Dole to attract about one-fifth of that constituency, which he believes will be enough to give Dole 40% of the overall vote, a knockout blow. That's the chief reason Dole attacks what he believes are "Hollywood's nightmares of depravity" whenever he visits the state. And it helps explain why Dole's new 30-second television ad, which promises tax cuts worth "$330 million for Iowa families," touts a "conservative agenda for change." Last week Dole burnished his conservative credentials by signing up Marlene Elwell, a Buchanan organizer, as his Iowa field director.

Of all the candidates, it is Gramm who is in the best position to upset Dole in Iowa. Backed by a gritty local staff, the Texan is trying to stitch together a coalition of deficit hawks, gun owners, property-rights activists and abortion opponents to win at least 25% of the vote. He is also trying to appeal to newly registered Republicans who may be fed up with the slow pace of change in Washington. If he manages it, a mistake or two by Dole in the next few weeks could make it a race.

But Gramm is hedging his bets, which may prove to be a fatal mistake. Rather than concentrate solely on Iowa, he is campaigning hard in several other early but lightly contested elections in the hope of stockpiling delegates elsewhere. The strategy has a price: Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, a Dole backer, has criticized Gramm for campaigning in Louisiana, which plans to steal the limelight from Iowa by holding caucuses a week earlier, on Feb. 6. Gramm recently spent a weekend in Alaska, where he courted voters by himself.

Gramm's biggest problem in Iowa is Forbes, whose smiling visage and upbeat message of tax cuts and prosperity are an appealing contrast to the scowling Texan. The publishing tycoon is also a one-man Iowa economic boom. He has lavished $1.1 million to spread his message, more than double the combined media expenditures of his rivals. A few weeks ago, neither the Gramm nor Dole camps believed Forbes could turn out significant numbers of supporters at the time-consuming caucuses. Now they are not so sure. As Pat Buchanan told TIME, "[Forbes] is softening up Dole, he's draining off Gramm, and he's driven poor Lamar into the nether reaches."

Forbes' competitors have already gone to some lengths to attack him. An aide to a rival campaign leaked word that Forbes' 151-ft.-long yacht, the Highlander, features among its art collection a photograph by the late homosexual artist Robert Mapplethorpe. (Well, yes, but it's a seascape.) Another operative in the same campaign found a waitress in New Hampshire who claims that Forbes left a miserly $2 tip on a $45 lunch bill; others in the party added $6. If these tactics are an indication of the weeks to come, the race is likely to be brutish as well as short.

--With reporting by Jeffrey H. Birnbaum/Washington

With reporting by JEFFREY H. BIRNBAUM/WASHINGTON