THE BOOK PARTY'S OVER

By Michael Duffy/Washington

WHEN HE WAS CHAIRMAN OF THE Joint Chiefs, Colin Powell was known for how carefully he prepared for battle. He would order up satellite photos, send out scouting patrols, and collect all the intelligence available before deciding where--or whether--to attack. Partly as a result, he was sometimes a reluctant warrior.

As Powell concluded a 35-day book tour last week, he admitted it was time to game out a war for the White House. He said he would spend a couple of weeks "in seclusion," studying his choices and talking with family and friends about seeking the G.O.P. nomination. The closer Powell gets to the decision, the deeper the chaos that grips the Republican Party, the G.O.P. presidential field and the Clinton White House--and the greater the anticipation of millions of American voters fed up with all three. Powell insists to friends he won't be swayed by the crush of adoring fans. "My enemies don't line up to buy books," he told a friend. "Supporters do."

Because the retired general wants the best advice, adviser Kenneth Duberstein has been quietly sounding out such top Republican operatives as pollster Bob Teeter and former Bush organizer Mary Matalin about the mechanics of a race: how to get on ballots and where to get organized first. Teeter and others have asked a small army of potential campaign staffers--including unaffiliated G.O.P. pollsters, media buyers and veteran organizers--to "stay loose" until Powell decides. Some operatives have been told to expect a "signal" by Nov. 1; others look for a mid-November announcement.

In the meantime, Powell has driven a wedge into the middle of the Republican Party's right wing. Such conservatives as Paul Weyrich and Gary Bauer view Powell as a liberal and media darling who will use the nomination to halt the Gingrich revolution. But after Weyrich labeled Powell "our enemy" in a letter to moral-values maven Bill Bennett, he countered with a five-page letter portraying Powell as a lesser evil, on the grounds that pro-life conservatives would have a better chance to reduce abortions under Powell than under Clinton. Early in October, Bennett sent Powell articles on how to curtail abortions without a constitutional amendment. Some conservatives were quietly pleased last week when Powell, who had described himself as firmly pro-choice in September, took a more circumspect line. The change in tone is one reason why Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed, rather than denouncing Powell, plans to press Gingrich, G.O.P. chairman Haley Barbour and other Republican leaders into coaxing Powell farther to the right. That may not be easy. With a touch of defiance, Powell-the-pol argued last week that extremism loses elections. "Find your revolutionary who gets more than 8% or 9% of the vote," he told reporters, "and let me know when you get it."

Rather than be caught off guard, the Dole campaign began to gently probe Powell's vulnerabilities. At the same time, a confidential memo written by Terry Jeffrey, Pat Buchanan's campaign manager, labeled Powell "a perfect foil for our campaign" and urged Buchanan to attack him immediately. (He did.)

For all of this pre-positioning, many of those tapped in recent days by the Powell team have come away from the conversations skeptical that he will run. Several noted that Republican Party regulars are historically suspicious of insurgent candidates. Nor do they see him as an eager rebel anyway. So it may be that, having eyeballed the battlefield, the general may not attack after all.

--With reporting by Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and J.F.O. McAllister/ Washington

With reporting by JEFFREY H. BIRNBAUM AND J.F.O. MCALLISTER/WASHINGTON