SILENCING THE GUNS

By JAMES O. JACKSON

THE WORLD HAS SEEN IT ALL BEFORE: a cease-fire is signed, the guns fall silent, hopes rise. Then somewhere in Bosnia a sniper's bullet or a mortar round or a tank attack sheds blood, and war begins again. Countless times since the start of the wars of Yugoslavia in 1991, a truce has been declared. Each time it has collapsed. Last week U.S. diplomats tried again, negotiating a cessation of hostilities that could take effect as early as Tuesday. But in contrast to the many failures of the past, there is a chance this one could last, clearing the way for a settlement in Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War II. President Clinton called it a "solid step on the hard but hopeful road to peace," and leaders of the warring parties promised to make it work. "We will respect it," said Alija Izetbegovic, the President of Bosnia. "And I think the Bosnian Serbs will respect it." Clinton also announced that peace talks would begin in the U.S. by the end of the month.

The agreement, negotiated by Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke, signed by Izetbegovic and Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, and witnessed by Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, calls for:

A comprehensive cease-fire to commence at one minute after midnight Tuesday and continue for 60 days or until completion of peace talks, whichever is later.

Restoration of gas and electricity to the besieged Bosnian capital, Sarajevo.

Exchange of all prisoners of war.

Free passage of nonmilitary traffic between Sarajevo and Gorazde, the Muslim enclave in eastern Bosnia.

The deal closes several military loopholes that led to cheating during past truces. It gives commanders five days to get the word out to isolated units, and it bans not only offensive maneuvers but also gray-area operations such as patrols and reconnaissance "forward of friendly positions," sniper fire and laying of mines. U.N. peacekeeping forces already on the ground are to monitor the cease-fire.

But preventing violations may be more difficult than the Administration is letting on. According to an internal Pentagon document obtained by TIME, the U.N. peacekeepers are "not equipped to enforce a cease-fire." Nor does the Pentagon believe NATO air power will be effective for this purpose. NATO planes could stop a large scale assault on Sarajevo but would be stretched too thin to police minor infractions everywhere. So according to the Pentagon document, the only way for the armistice to last is through "self policing" by the warring parties.

Nevertheless, there is cause for optimism. One reason for hope is that a balance of power has been reached. The Bosnian Serbs have lost a great deal of ground since the summer as the Croat-Muslim allies have attacked them; they used to control almost 70% of Bosnia but now hold about 50%. Last week, however, the Bosnian Serbs were suddenly counterattacking with some success. "The Serbian offensive this week was a major factor in making the cease-fire possible," Holbrooke said in an interview with TIME. As he spoke in his hotel room in Rome, he kept one eye on CNN and was repeatedly interrupted by calls from Washington. "It became clear to the parties concerned that there was something of a military equilibrium on the ground."

Since August, in a near constant shuttle from Sarajevo to Belgrade to Zagreb, with stops in New York City and Washington in between, a determined Holbrooke has cajoled, pleaded, hounded and threatened to push the factions toward peace talks. As all the parts began coming together last week, he first went to work on Izetbegovic in a Monday meeting where he pleaded with the reluctant Muslim leader to sign the cease-fire agreement. "Don't play craps with your destiny," warned Holbrooke. "You'd better be ready to live with the consequences if you make the wrong gamble." Izetbegovic still hesitated, so Holbrooke headed for Belgrade, where he won Serbian agreement on the cease-fire Tuesday. Back he went to Sarajevo to "walk through the pros and cons again" with Izetbegovic, who insisted on restoration of gas and electricity for his capital and opening the Gorazde road. Back to Belgrade and a grueling six-hour meeting with Milosevic. "It was an excruciating drama as we came down to the last few sentences," he said. "Each side tried to throw deal breakers in at the last minute."

The final push came Thursday in Sarajevo. Holbrooke went directly to Izetbegovic, who asked for "minor changes." Holbrooke refused. "One of the great lessons I have learned," he said, "is that there is no such thing as a 'minor' change in the Balkans." At last, Izetbegovic gave in.

That, however, was only the beginning. "This is not a peace," Holbrooke had cautioned earlier, "but this is undeniably a big step forward." Indeed, fighting continued even after the signing as the factions tried to improve their positions before the truce was to start. "This is the Balkans," said a senior White House official. "It's still a tough neighborhood." But if the cease-fire holds, peace negotiations will begin. The key players will be Izetbegovic, Milosevic and Croatian President Franjo Tudjman. These will be "proximity talks"--so called because the three Presidents will be quartered together in a remote U.S. location far from the glare of the world media. "These discussions will look and feel like what you remember from Camp David," said State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns. "The only difference is they won't be at Camp David."

There was also diplomatic progress on another front in the Balkans last week. One of the most worrisome problems there has been the fate of eastern Slavonia, a fertile, oil-rich region of Croatia that borders Serbia. Four years ago, rebel Serbs took it over, and Western diplomats have always believed that if anything were to cause Croatia and Serbia to go to war, it would be this territory. But on Tuesday the Croatian government and Croatian Serb officials from the disputed region signed an 11-point agreement on a peaceful settlement that basically establishes a transitional government representing both sides for an undefined period of time. The accord is vague and will need more work, but diplomats say Milosevic has given his quiet approval to it.

As for Bosnia, whenever diplomacy seems to be succeeding there, it always raises the question of how any eventual peace agreement will be enforced. The Administration has promised to send U.S. troops as part of a NATO force that would implement the peace, but Congress is reluctant to support such a mission. Now the Administration is wrestling with another problem: what to do about Russian participation in the enforcement of a peace plan. "What is essential to us is that the international force be NATO led, with NATO rules of engagement, unity in command," insisted a senior Administration official. "Having said all that, we would very much like there to be non-NATO participation, including the Russians." The Russians are extremely concerned about being shut out of the Bosnia peace process, but they will not put their troops under NATO command. Holbrooke plans to visit Moscow later this month to explain the agreement.

Officials at the Pentagon say the U.S. European Command is considering four options: the Russians would provide support troops or would handle the strategic lift functions; they would be given a specific area to police; their forces would be placed under the command of France, which is not part of NATO's military organization; or they would be put under the direction of whatever U.N. forces remain in Bosnia. None of these alternatives may be palatable to the Russians. This is a problem that will come only with peace, however, and in that sense, it will be a welcome one to have.

--Reported by Tamala M. Edwards and Douglas Waller/Washington, Alexandra Stiglmayer/Zagreb and Bruce van Voorst/Rome, with other bureaus

With reporting by TAMALA M. EDWARDS AND DOUGLAS ALLER/WASHINGTON, ALEXANDRA STIGLMAYER/ZAGREB AND BRUCE VAN VOORST/ROME, WITH OTHER BUREAUS