PLAYING ABORTION POLITICS

By Michael Kramer

A lot of egotistical presidential wannabes (which means all of them) think Bob Dole can be beaten. But with little to show for their efforts so far, the Dole challengers are focusing on the race for second place. Each hopes that if he can finish second in the early going, anything might be possible later on. Most of their strategies are conventional. They assume the overwhelmingly conservative nature of the Republican nominating electorate and seek to capture the largest number of leftover ballots after Dole's presumed romps almost everywhere. But two of the candidates, Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter and California's Pete Wilson, are considering first-ever campaigns designed to reach well beyond the usual Republican franchise.

Twenty-two states, including Iowa and New Hampshire (sites of the two crucial early contests), welcome crossover voters. Thus non-Republicans can help select the eventual G.O.P. nominee. Would they do it? Specter and Wilson believe their pro-choice views on abortion may be the key to an enlarged pool of voters (assuming Bill Clinton remains unopposed on the Democratic side). "Take Iowa first, because it is," says Roger Stone, who is masterminding Specter's campaign. "Figure the normal Iowa turnout of about 110,000 Republican votes, and assume, as everyone does, that Dole will win about 50% of those ballots. With so many players, we could be second with as few as 12,000 votes." Iowa has some moderate Republicans, says Stone, "but not enough. We need Democrats and independents, and our approach won't be subtle: 'Hey, folks, if you hate the antiabortion crazies' domination of the G.O.P., then show up at the Republican caucuses and vote for Arlen. That's the way to send 'em a message.'"

Stone is working with Planned Parenthood and the National Abortion Rights Action League to identify pro-choice voters, regardless of their party affiliation. "If we can pull 5,000 or so non-G.O.P.ers to the Iowa caucuses, we can get second," he says. "That would give us a bounce in New Hampshire," where independents, but not Democrats, can vote in the Republican primary.

The same plan was put to Wilson several months ago by former G.O.P. national chairman Rich Bond (before he signed with Dole). "But we'd offer a twist," says a Wilson adviser. "Sending a message is fine, we'll say, but why waste your vote? Pete's the only moderate with a real chance of stopping Dole." "We'll nuke 'em if they try that," says Stone, pointing to Wilson's "multiple choice" record on abortion. "He used to favor government funding for abortions for poor women, but doesn't any longer, and twice when he was a Senator he cast the deciding vote restricting federal health-insurance plans from providing abortion coverage." True enough, concedes a Wilson aide, "but who's pure? Arlen's the one who destroyed Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas hearings."

It's difficult to overestimate Specter's improbability. If it's he who benefits from a pro-choice strategy, Dole will probably coast to the nomination. If Wilson's the beneficiary, however, Dole could face real trouble. All that seems certain now is this: with House Republicans readying numerous pro-life bills, including a possible ban on the abortion drug RU 486, the question of choice could at least cause major turmoil in the G.O.P.'s 1996 presidential politics. "An abortion-rights strategy might not work for us, or for Wilson either," says Stone. "But roiling the process in the service of a good cause could compensate for losing."