ALWAYS ROOM FOR ONE MORE

By JEFFREY H. BIRNBAUM WASHINGTON

LAST OCTOBER, WHEN PRESIDENT Clinton's inner circle was peddling him a comparatively rosy take on the midterm elections, one unlikely outsider was sending an alarm. Dick Morris, a Democratic turned Republican consultant who had worked for Clinton in Arkansas, told the President the Democrats would lose 50 seats in the House and control of the Senate as well. The prediction was so prescient that Clinton, though hardly lacking for advisers, has continued to partake of Morris' counsel, usually over the phone but sometimes during private sessions in the White House residence. He even directed the Democratic National Committee to hire Morris's favorite polling firm, Penn & Schoen Associates of New York City, which worked for Clinton rival Ross Perot in 1992. Since December, Penn & Schoen has conducted surveys that compete with those of Clinton's regular pollster, Stan Greenberg.

The Morris back channel has caused even more upheaval than usual in the ad hoc Clinton White House. Strategists were preparing to keep Clinton at a distance from the Contract with America and to allow surrogates to bash the G.O.P. But in a conversation in early April, the Connecticut-based Morris advised Clinton to follow his inclination by taking the issues head on and explaining what he would do differently. The result: the day House Speaker Gingrich was to give a presumptively presidential address on national television, the President scrapped plans to deliver a speech on education and delivered a Morris-inspired rundown of what he liked and disliked about the contract. While the President has solicited advice from a variety of outside consultants, says White House Press Secretary Michael McCurry: "[Morris] has had a lot of impact." The presence of this new adviser has raised questions about just who is in charge of political operations, now officially headed by deputy chief of staff Harold Ickes.

The Republican consultant--his most prominent recent client is Senator Trent Lott from Mississippi, a Gingrich ally--is likely to have an even greater impact in the months to come. Last Friday Clinton officially formed his re-election committee, but there is still no one to run it. The President is said to be pressuring Trade Representative Mickey Kantor to take the chairman's job, though Kantor denies it. To shore up his perpetually battered political operation, Clinton is considering hiring Ed Reilly, a New York pollster, for a top White House communications job, and Marla Romash, a former Gore aide, to run a political "war room" at the Democratic National Committee. For media consultant, Clinton is thinking about using Bob Squier or Frank Greer, among others. But most of the senior slots in the campaign remain vacant, and there is no clear re-election strategy or organization for what is sure to be an uphill battle. "Democrats are waiting for direction from the White House about what they should do in '96," says Jeff Eller, a former Clinton aide. "But the White House isn't giving any signs." That may be where Morris comes in.

Now 47, Morris has been a trusted adviser to Clinton since 1978, when the young attorney general of Arkansas first decided to run for Governor and Morris turned Clinton on to the power of polling. According to a Clinton biography by David Maraniss of the Washington Post, Clinton and Morris had a falling out after that election, reconciled briefly in 1980 (even though Clinton lost his re-election bid) and then formed an unshakable bond in 1982, when Morris helped Clinton reinvent himself politically and develop the "permanent campaign" strategy that Clinton still employs. Possibly apocryphal stories abound about the two men staying up all night writing campaign commercials and of Clinton decking Morris over a disagreement about Clinton's treatment of his chief of staff, Betsey Wright. Coming to terms with his own increasing conservatism, Morris decided in 1988 to consult for pay only for Republicans, although he continued to talk to Clinton as a friend. They remain an odd couple. Clinton has tried to be the voice of moderation, while Morris is one of the more incendiary figures in politics today. In the March issue of Campaigns and Elections magazine, Morris, who claims the late G.O.P. hit man Lee Atwater as an idol, unabashedly said his immediate goal was to "help Republicans govern successfully and become a majority party."

He is certainly getting a lot of help from the tattered and divisive Democratic Party. The party's congressional wing defines itself by confronting the Republicans almost as a reflex, while Clinton tends toward conciliation. Morris' growing influence is sure to exacerbate that split, even though his career makes clear that he is able--and willing--to argue any side of a political issue in order to win, a telling trait his buddy Clinton has also been accused of possessing. At the same time, no amount of accommodation seems to placate Southern conservatives. Last week Congressman Nathan Deal of Georgia became the nation's 78th elected Democrat to become a Republican since Clinton's election, and others are expected to follow suit or to quit rather than make the switch. "Democrats have gotten over denial, and now they are in shock about their future," concludes James Thurber, a political scientist at American University. "And their future looks pretty grim."

The Deal defection is part of a larger movement that has made the current Congress the first since Reconstruction in which Republicans hold a majority of the 125 House seats that span the old Confederacy. Deal is also emblematic of the loss to the Democratic Party of the much sought after white-male voter. Senator Sam Nunn is the only white Democrat left in Georgia's congressional delegation, and friends say he is thinking seriously of retiring next year. Concludes Merle Black of Emory University: "The South is moving toward having a white Republican Party and a black, and very small, Democratic Party."

The trends are not much kinder to Democrats elsewhere in the country. A national poll released last week by Republican Ed Goeas and Democrat Celinda Lake showed that voters had more confidence in the Republican Party on most issues and preferred Republican candidates for Congress. As a result, congressional expert Charles Cook gives the Democrats almost no chance of winning back a majority in the Senate next year and a 40% chance at most of retaking the House. One reason, says Cook, is simple lack of preparation: "I see none of the introspection that we saw the Democrats do during the tough times in 1980 and 1984."

House minority leader Richard Gephardt has met one on one with nearly 20 potential retirees, and has lunch every week or 10 days with disgruntled party conservatives in an effort to keep them on board. Gephardt and other leaders went even further for Deal, arranging a rare, unanimous vote by Democrats in favor of his welfare-reform alternative two weeks before he jumped ship. "I consider them as individuals very fine people," Deal said of the leaders. "Unfortunately, they have been to the liberal side of the agenda. For someone who comes from a conservative district, that consensus still leaves me in a difficult position."

Republicans are also winning where it really counts--in campaign contributions. Political-action committees have been heeding G.O.P. threats of retribution by ponying up at an unprecedented rate. In the days just before and right after last year's election, Republicans outgained Democrats 3 to 1 in large "soft money" contributions. And in the first two months of this year, the Republican National Committee has already received more such funds than in all of 1993. The biggest single payoff will come next month at a dinner benefiting both the House and Senate campaign committees. Senators ranging from New York's Alfonse D'Amato to Michigan's Spence Abraham have been personally dunning CEOs. But the hard sell is not necessary. The PAC of the big-time lobbying law firm Verner Liipfert, for one, has already decided to give at least 60% of its money to Republicans; it used to give 70% to Democrats. And Congressman Deal has been getting a different kind of payoff for his recent switch: his calls have been running 3 to 1 in favor of his becoming a Republican.

--With reporting by James Carney, John F. Dickerson, Michael Duffy and Karen Tumulty/Washington

With reporting by JAMES CARNEY, JOHN F. DICKERSON, MICHAEL DUFFY AND KAREN TUMULTY/WASHINGTON