Frightening Face-Off

By J.F.O. McAllister/Washington

President Clinton goes to Seoul and warns the North Koreans that if they ever use the nuclear weapon they are suspected of developing, it will bring a response that destroys their nation. North Korea says if economic sanctions are imposed because it refuses to permit inspection of its nuclear sites, Pyongyang will consider it "an act of war." Should the world be getting nervous?

All the aggressive talk is exaggerated, but it reflects a growing controversy. At bottom the dispute is about nuclear proliferation and how to control it. The U.S. feels frustrated in its efforts to make Pyongyang comply with treaty commitments to allow international inspection of its nuclear program. For weeks, diplomats have been trying simultaneously to pressure and cajole the isolated regime into living up to anti-proliferation rules. North Korea has done nothing but stall, forcing the U.S. to contemplate stronger measures.

Some in Washington say Clinton should just order out the B-52s to bomb the North's plutonium reprocessing plant and two reactors, neatly destroying the danger. But that is unrealistic: a strike could spread a big radioactive cloud over the peninsula, miss hidden weapons or start a devastating war between North and South Korea. A more practical tactic would be the imposition of economic sanctions by the United Nations -- but even if China, long friendly to the North, did not veto an embargo, Pyongyang might feel cornered and lash out.

Before it comes to that, the West is trying to make North Korea back down. Hans Blix, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, declared that there was no longer any "meaningful assurance" that North Korea was using its nuclear materials for peaceful purposes, now that the IAEA surveillance equipment installed at the nuclear sites has run out of film and battery power. Pentagon officials caused jitters in Pyongyang by telling reporters they were weighing plans to reinforce the 37,000 American soldiers stationed in the South, deploy Patriot antimissile batteries or dispatch some aircraft carriers to bolster Seoul's army. "We are responsibly thinking about every conceivable thing that could happen, bad and good," said Clinton, after a briefing by Secretary of Defense Les Aspin and other senior defense officials.

Polishing the big stick in public is intended mostly as a signal to Pyongyang to stop procrastinating. But it also reflects long-brewing unease among Pentagon officials about how U.N. forces in the South would fare against a North Korean blitzkrieg. With 1.1 million regular troops -- the world's fifth-largest army -- 550,000 reservists and 100,000 commandos, North Korea has more than one-third of its population under arms. About 70% of active-duty forces are stationed within 60 miles from the Demilitarized Zone, and the DMZ is only 35 miles from Seoul, a rich target with its 11 million people and heavy concentration of industry.

This fearsome deployment is not new, nor is the North's manpower advantage over the South, which has only 633,000 active armed forces. What is new is an appreciation of the North's heavy investment in modern artillery, massing most of its 4,500 self-propelled guns and 2,000 mobile rocket launchers within range of Seoul.

The U.S. Joint Chiefs' estimates of the military balance on the peninsula have regularly concluded that the North Korean army would falter at the first of three defensive lines that begin four miles south of the DMZ, and eventually be repulsed because of the South's superior equipment and air power. But the Pentagon's independent Office of Net Assessment has reached a darker conclusion. Robert Gaskin, former deputy director of that office, says 1979 and 1991 studies figure that the three defensive lines could probably be breached by a determined onslaught of North Korean artillery. If the South Korean defenses did break, the North could probably take the whole of the South in a week or two. To address these issues, Aspin has announced a yearlong study with South Korea to plug the holes identified by the Pentagon report.

Such sober assessments reinforce the Administration in its strategy of emphasizing the rewards of cooperation -- diplomatic recognition from Washington, economic aid from Japan -- in pressing Pyongyang to resume nuclear inspections. Last Friday the North suggested a diplomatic solution was possible when it offered to allow inspectors wider access. For now, patience is not a bad option. The North Korean regime is isolated, poor and aging. A younger generation shows some signs of wanting to open to the West. Washington can afford to wait to see if Pyongyang's politics break its way. Meanwhile it will not hurt to think about bringing in reinforcements.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: [TMFONT 1 d #666666 d {Source: Military Balance, DIA}]CAPTION: THE MUSCLE

NORTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA

With reporting by Edward W. Desmond/Tokyo and Jay Peterzell/Washington