Gored But Not Gone

By DAVID VAN BIEMA

By the time Ross Perot got around to making his ominous threat last Tuesday night, many viewers may already have tuned out. Al Gore had seemingly won the NAFTA debate on points, and there was a temptation to begin writing the Texan's political obituary for the next day's papers. But just three minutes before the end of the encounter, a stymied and annoyed Perot leaned into the camera and confided, "The whole House of Representatives is running in 1994, and a third of the Senate. We've got a little song we sing: 'We remember in November when we step into that little booth.' " Moderator Larry King, realizing that Perot seemed to be making explicit what had previously been veiled, asked whether he was saying he would try to defeat Representatives who voted for NAFTA. The people would do so, replied Perot. "There's no way to stop 'em."

The exchange drew no headlines, probably because it was Perot's personal vulnerability that stole the show. In a TIME/ CNN poll taken after the debate last week, only 18% of those surveyed said Perot won the debate, vs. 47% for Gore. Perot's overall popularity has fallen too. Just 35% said they have a generally favorable impression of him, down sharply from over 52% last summer. What kind of President would Perot make? A bad one, said 57% of those in the TIME/ CNN survey.

But to leave it at that ignores a political reality. Whatever happens to Perot's poll numbers -- in fact, whatever happens to NAFTA -- he still heads United We Stand America, the largest citizen-action group in modern American history.

As recently as last summer, United We Stand's most striking characteristic seemed to be its internal divisions. Many of itsstate leaders quit or were fired when independent-minded franchises clashed with Perot's Dallas-based lieutenants. At least 100 offshoots disenchanted with Perot sprang up. "Nobody is happy all the time," admits UWSA spokeswoman Sharon Holman. In fact, one New York dissident group has been so unhappy that it sent Gore a tip sheet before the debate, identifying Perot's personal hot-buttons.

The young group's case of institutional colic is mostly past, however. The loyalist majority now boasts 50 state chapters, each firmly under the stewardship of a paid director chosen at Dallas headquarters. "It was difficult to communicate when we had a growing membership without an official organization structure," says Georgia state director Richard Taylor, applying the official spin. "We are changing that."

The membership roster (annual dues: $15) is growing rapidly. A recent campaign has focused on installing chapters in each congressional district, supplemented by city, town and campus organizations. Although Perot, perhaps saving up for a grand gesture, withholds the tally even from state leaders, enrollment appears to have topped 2 million, doubling since late spring. This dwarfs other public-action groups, even Pat Robertson's influential Christian Coalition, which has been in existence far longer.

Moreover, despite an influx of farmers and smokestack-industry workers attracted by its anti-NAFTA stance, UWSA's core membership is heavy on small- business people, retired military officers and others dexterous with Rolodexes, mailing lists and the other building blocks of activism. They are also dedicated. Roger Henson, the group's Texas issues coordinator, a 45-year- old engineering consultant with a wife and 11-year-old son, has put his life on hold to work the volunteer position. "We made the decision as a family that it was critical to our nation to participate in this debate," he says.

The group's pull-out-the-stops NAFTA strategy, including hundreds of local rallies, letter and fax campaigns and vigils outside the offices of fence- sitting Congressmen, has put to rest complaints by early critics that Perot was more interested in swelling the organization's size than setting it loose on the issues. Yet the group should thrive regardless of Wednesday's vote in Congress. If NAFTA dies, new members will be attracted by success, moving on to new issues, such as term limits and Clinton's health plan, or re-visiting the deficit. If NAFTA triumphs, Perot's following, which has always thrived on his outsider and underdog status, should be energized. And the two most important ingredients in the group's success will stay constant: Perot's money and an antiestablishment mood built up during the recession.

How much congressional clout does the group have? Although it may be a major factor in up to 16 NAFTA nays, United We Stand's role as junior partner to Big Labor on the issue will make it difficult to get an exact reading. That will not be the case in the '94 congressional elections, which will include more than 100 closely competitive races, nearly twice the normal number. Russ Verney, a UWSA staff member in Dallas with ample vote-counting skills as former executive director of the New Hampshire State Democratic Party, estimates that "we can be 4% or 5% of the vote in a given district or state." Although the group has applied for a tax-exempt status that would forbid blatant politicking, it may publicize the extent to which a given politician's platform conforms to its beliefs. Realistically, UWSA has a decent chance of tipping elections in between two and three dozen districts. Says Henson, the Texas volunteer: "We are not a very old organization. ((But)) we will be heard."

Immediately after last week's debate, Perot looked tired and grumpy. Appearing before 350 supporters at a Washington hotel, he groused that "the Vice President of the United States had to be trained all weekend to be arrogant, condescending and rude." But soon his natural ebullience kicked in, and he began effusing once more about '94. "We're just warming up!" he cried happily. "In every congressional district in the country, there are huge armies of people out there determined to rebuild the country, balance the budget, pay down the debt."

It may be that a majority of Americans now agree with the view of Ed Martin, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, who thinks Perot has to go beyond his exhortations to "Just pick up the hood and fix it." Says Martin: "All he's done is lifted the hood. He hasn't fixed anything. You can't just complain." But the bumptious billionaire does not need a majority, or even the 19% he got in '92, to throw a lot of weight in '94. A year from now, a number of incumbents may find the rest of his little tune buzzing in their head: "We'll remember in November/ When we step into that little booth./ We'll remember in November/ To vote for anyone but, anyone but you."

With reporting by Laurence I. Barrett/Washington, John F. Dickerson/New York and Deborah Fowler and Richard Woodbury/Houston