You Fly, You Die

They will not -- probably cannot -- do it for Slavic Muslims in Bosnia. But the U.S. and its European allies are prepared to give air protection to Shi'ite Muslims in Iraq. The U.S., France and Britain, having mobilized a force of 200 aircraft and 19 navy ships, have agreed to declare a "no-fly zone" across the southern third of the country. The force is to fly reconnaissance missions over a marshy region where Western officials say Saddam Hussein pursues a policy of genocide against opponents of his regime. The goal will be to close the sky to Iraqi flights. "We're going to monitor and watch what he's doing there," said U.S. National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, and that means "he has to stop flying."

The allied action was prompted by evidence that 70 Iraqi combat aircraft were being used to attack Shi'ite villages and rebel camps in the swamps and islands in the Basra region, where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers empty into the gulf. That violates a U.N. resolution, passed after the Gulf War, prohibiting Saddam's "repression" of his own people. A similar protection zone has been in effect in northern Kurdish regions since April 1991.

Military experts warn that limited reconnaissance missions can lead to air and ground combat. "The air force will argue that to remove the risk of < losses, they would like to take out some if not all of the Iraqi air defenses again," says Colonel Andrew Duncan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Then you're on the slippery slope to escalation." But the allies may have concluded that their best tactic is to squeeze Saddam between rebellious Kurds to the north and hostile Shi'ites to the south. (See related story on page 47.)