How To Follow the Talks

By Jill Smolowe

ROAD TO ????

Madrid was the easy part. Delegates had only to stake out a position, not cede an inch of ground. The course toward peace is pockmarked with sandpits, potholes and booby traps. If you plan to stay tuned, be ready for a long, long siege, marked by proclamations of self-sacrifice and ritualistic outbursts of indignation. And be wary of the press leaks of success/failure that are sure to follow. Any real bargaining will be behind closed doors, and the only reliable evidence of progress will be public statements of mutual commitment.

PALESTINIANS: This group, more a coalition than a team, calls Jerusalemite Faisal al-Husseini the "head of the delegation," though Dr. Haidar Abdul- Shafi is the group's formal leader. And behind them still is P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat.

SYRIA: The toughest guys at the talks. Although English-speaking Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa is the front man, make no mistake: President Hafez Assad will be calling the shots -- and the other Arabs will listen.

ISRAEL: Yitzhak ("Not One Inch") Shamir is the hard-line leader of a solidly hard-line team. But Deputy Foreign Minister Benjamin ("Nightline") Netanyahu, who speaks perfect American, will put the velvet spin on Israel's positions.

U.S.: President Bush insists that he will be a "catalyst," not an imposer of solutions. But if he and James Baker do not provide concrete proposals that enable the parties to make incremental concessions, talks will stall -- and they may feel some heat for the failure.

PARTY LINES

In Madrid the delegates presented very tough -- and very familiar -- opening positions:

Palestinians: Want an independent state, in confederation with Jordan, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But coming into the conference, they have dropped their long-standing refusal to accept self-rule over daily affairs in the West Bank and Gaza as a first step. As an immediate sign of good faith, they want a freeze on Jewish settlements in the occupied territories. They have vowed to stick out the talks.

Syria: The most truculent -- wants Israel to cede "every inch of Arab land occupied by the Israelis by war and force," particularly the Golan Heights, in return for a state of nonbelligerency. Damascus refuses to participate in regional talks until Israel demonstrates a willingness to return occupied territory. Assad has vowed to strike no separate deals with Israel, and is exhorting other Arab delegations to take the same position.

Lebanon: Wants Israel to withdraw its forces from its self-proclaimed "security zone" in southern Lebanon, dissolve its proxy militia, the South Lebanon Army, and release some 300 Arab prisoners.

Jordan: Wants a settlement for the Palestinians in the West Bank so they do not wind up staking their homeland on the East Bank in Jordan. It also would like to reach a comprehensive agreement on water-sharing rights.

Israel: Wants peace treaties without giving back any occupied land. Shamir has made the future of Jerusalem non-negotiable and has ruled out a freeze on settlements and withdrawal from all occupied territories. But Israel is ready to adopt an interim five-year plan that would grant Palestinians limited self- rule while maintaining control of the land, security arrangements and foreign affairs. Could bolt if it feels overly pressured.

GIVE & TAKE

Real bargaining has to begin somewhere. Where to look:

Palestinians: The U.S. is prodding them to suspend the intifadeh in exchange for a freeze of Jewish settlements. Shamir has already rejected such a scheme, but might find it hard to resist if international pressure mounts. To get around the impasse, the Palestinians might agree to a joint authority, with Israel, to control public lands in the occupied territories while the talks continue. That would give Palestinians a temporary -- but not permanent -- veto over new settlements.

Syria: Might be persuaded to reduce its armed presence in Lebanon, provided Israel does the same. Numerous plans for demilitarizing the Golan Heights exist that could give de jure sovereignty back to Syria but leave real control of the Golan in the hands of international peacekeepers.

Israel: Might consider demilitarizing portions of the Golan Heights if the U.S. provides sufficient security guarantees. If pressure at home and abroad grows strong enough, even Shamir might be forced to halt settlements to keep the talks going. In Lebanon a precondition for withdrawal would be the disarmament of remaining local militias.

GOOD SIGNS

Middle East sands have yet to shift. Still, there are reasons to hope:

The moderate cast of the Palestinian delegation -- its members are highly educated, professional, nonrhetorical -- suggests seriousness about carving out some sort of self-government, perhaps short of an independent state. Arafat has stated, "Anything these Palestinian leaders accept, I will accept."

Without Moscow as a patron, Syria desperately needs Western trade and investment to rebuild its economy and may bend so as not to alienate Washington.

The Saudi presence at Madrid was a pleasant surprise. Normally they stay home if the outcome of a meeting is in doubt.

Bush declined to prescribe any settlement, giving the U.S. maximum maneuvering room for avoiding showdowns. But he did set a useful deadline for "interim self-government" by the Palestinians to be achieved within a year.

SYMBOLISM

And They're Off. They came. They saw. They conquered their mutual repulsion long enough to sit down together. They accepted the T-shaped table configuration, seating assignments, speaking times without much fuss. No one stormed out over procedures.

Still Too Far to Go. What you did not see between the Arabs and Israelis: a formal handshake. A smile. A greeting in the other's language. Eye contact. The sharing of a meal. An exchange of gifts. The display of national flags. The playing of national anthems.

Nuance Counts, but Not Too Much. Analysts made much of it when an Israeli functionary gave copier paper to the Palestinian delegation, and the Jordanians lent a hammer to the Israelis. But constant temperature taking can lead to wrong conclusions.

The Grand Gesture. Israelis yearn for another Sadat, who will break the psychological barrier between Arabs and Jews with a grand gesture like the Egyptian's 1977 visit to Jerusalem. But there were very few visionaries among the tough pragmatists.

STUMBLING BLOCKS

THE REAL GAP is in attitude: each party comes with a deep reservoir of distrust. Few Arabs or Israelis believe that the talks will succeed.

LOCATION could sabotage the talks early on. Israel wants them to alternate between Israel and the Arab states as a form of de facto mutual recognition. Syria wants to stay in Madrid to emphasize the international umbrella. Palestinians veto the occupied territories, while Jerusalem rules out East Jerusalem.

JEWISH SETTLEMENTS rising in the occupied territories could be the first pivotal issue. Both the Arabs and the U.S. consider a halt to new building essential as a sign of good faith. Shamir is determined not to yield, but might eventually be cajoled to accept a freeze as a lever for extracting larger Arab concessions.

THE $10 BILLION LOAN GUARANTEES that Israel expects from Washington come January to help resettle Soviet Jews could play a key role. The U.S. has linked the money to a halt in new settlements. The Arabs see the decision as a barometer of U.S. willingness to pressure Israel.

ELECTIONS in the U.S. and Israel could put negotiations on hold until both are completed in November 1992.

THE HOST WITH THE MOST

The U.S. is plainly the sponsor that counts. All parties believe that no real progress can be made without continued pressure, prodding and prompting from Washington. A recent report by the U.S. Institute of Peace concluded, "Only when the President is active . . . do the parties take a U.S. mediation effort seriously." Is Bush up to that? His aides are already sweating bullets over falling polls that say the President spends too much time on foreign affairs while America rots. The U.S. strategy: remain attentive and hope that the mere act of talking will create a chemistry for compromise among enemies.

FELLOW TRAVELER

Though technically a co-sponsor of the peace talks, Gorbachev could do little better than bask in Bush's reflected glory. Moscow's role was largely played when it urged Syria to the bargaining table. Still, the Soviets might get some useful trade and keep a toe on the world stage.

BUZZ WORDS

LAND FOR PEACE

The basic trade, enshrined in the purposefully vague U.N. Resolution 242, endorsed by the U.S.

Palestinians: Give us an independent homeland, we'll stop throwing rocks.

Syria: Give us the Golan Heights, we'll pretend not to hate you.

Israel: We already gave land -- Sinai in 1982. Now give us peace.

TERRITORIAL COMPROMISE

Variation on land for peace, the favored option of the mainstream Israeli left: we'll give back some land, but never return to the insecure pre-1967 borders.

COMPREHENSIVE SETTLEMENT

Arabs: No separate, bilateral agreements, as happened at Camp David.

Israel: Comprehensive? Sure. But one bilateral step at a time.

AUTONOMY

Common usage: A way station between continued Israeli occupation and Palestinian independence.

Palestinians: A sellout of their interests.

Israel: A gradual recognition of the rights of individual Palestinians. Cynics' translation: "Local authority over how many goats can be raised per hectare."

INTERIM AUTHORITY

Common usage: Something more than autonomy but less than a Palestinian state.

Palestinians: A large degree of self-rule that includes control over land, legislation and water resources and a reduced Israeli security presence.

Israel: Houseguests with improved bathroom and kitchen privileges.

U.S.: An unspecified measure of control over economic and political decisions.

HONEST BROKER

Arabs: A U.S. interlocutor who pressures Israel.

Israel: A U.S. mediator who serves as a partner.

With reporting by Lisa Beyer and J.F.O. McAllister/Madrid