Middle East: Let's Do a Deal

By Jill Smolowe

As negotiations proceeded fitfully last week, the deadly sport of Hide the Hostage began to resemble a sophisticated version of the children's game Operator. Each party to the negotiations, whether dealing openly or behind the scenes, relayed its demands to Javier Perez de Cuellar. The U.N. Secretary- General transmitted each message to a third party, who in turn cried, "Operator!" requesting that the communication be repeated, clarified or amplified. Perez de Cuellar then went back to the first party, bearing new details, fresh analysis and cajoling reassurances.

While all this had the promising feel of an end game, the negotiations proceeded at a frustratingly slow pace, and no one could tell if a settlement was days or weeks away -- or possibly stalemated altogether. With so many circuits buzzing at once, there was ample room for misunderstanding, misinterpretation and plain old mischief. Was the tally of Western hostages 11 or 10 (is British journalist Alec Collett dead?) or nine (is Italian businessman Alberto Molinari dead as well?)? The estimated number of Arabs imprisoned in Europe fluctuated between 19 and 23. One day, the 9,000 or so Palestinians detained in Israel in connection with the nearly four-year-old intifadeh were not a factor; the next, they were added to the equation, and their numbers were inflated to 18,000 to boot.

Despite the conflicting signals, the outlines of a deal began to emerge. The pivotal player was Israel, which insisted on a strict accounting of the whereabouts of seven missing servicemen but promised to be "very flexible" about the terms for trading its Arab prisoners in southern Lebanon that would in turn spring the release of the Western captives. Jerusalem offered a two- step plan. In phase one, Israel would release about 50 Shi'ites after receiving a full report on its soldiers, verifiable by either videotape or international observers. The second stage would see the release of the remaining Shi'ite detainees (is the total 375, as Israel maintains, or more than 400, as others claim?), including the south Lebanon spiritual leader Sheik Abdul Karim Obeid. In exchange, Israel would retrieve its surviving soldiers and the remains of the rest. Israeli officials offered on Saturday to allow the Red Cross to visit Sheik Obeid if it is also given access to Israelis in Arab custody.

Since neither the Bush Administration nor any European government wants to be perceived as bargaining with kidnappers, they made no overt demand about the timing of the Western hostages' release. But plainly the West expects its captives to be freed during one of those two phases.

While the contours of the deal seemed clear, the mechanics posed nettlesome questions. Among the most vexing was a condition contained in the letter former British hostage John McCarthy brought to Perez de Cuellar from Islamic Jihad, a fundamentalist Shi'ite faction, operating under the banner of the pro-Iranian Hizballah, that holds several Westerners. It called for "the release of our freedom fighters from prisons in occupied Palestine and Europe." To whom that referred was anybody's guess -- and for whom Islamic Jihad presumed to speak was no more apparent. Was this a bargaining point or an implacable demand?

As Perez de Cuellar attempted to untangle that knot, he also dealt with the immediate question of Israel's seven MIAs. Jerusalem vowed to release no prisoners until it had concrete information about the soldiers' whereabouts. In turn, a senior Hizballah source in Beirut warned, "No more Westerners will be released until Israel frees at least some prisoners."

So where are the Israeli soldiers? How many of them are still alive? And whose answers to those questions can be trusted? Hizballah asserted last week that three of the servicemen are still alive. A Westerner who has served as an intermediary in hostage negotiations said he believed that only airman Ron Arad has survived his captivity. When those contradictory statements were coupled with the disparate claims emanating from Iran and Syria about the Israeli soldiers, the overriding impression was that no one source could account authoritatively for all seven.

Another factor that could scotch a settlement is the imprisonment in Germany of two Lebanese brothers, Mohammed and Abbas Hammadi. Tried and jailed for, respectively, the 1985 TWA hijacking and the abduction of two German relief workers, the Hammadis are an unpredictable wild card in the hostage negotiations. The Hammadi family claims to hold the two Germans hostage and has warned the leadership of Hizballah, to which it belongs, that they will not go free until the imprisoned brothers are released.

After an initial tart response that Germany "will not be blackmailed," Bonn lapsed into silence. Germany's refusal to swap convicted criminals for kidnapped hostages is well known, and any second thoughts would undoubtedly be checked by pressure from Washington, especially since Mohammed Hammadi was convicted for his role in the 1985 TWA skyjacking, which resulted in the murder of U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem. How critical the Hammadis will prove in any final settlement remains uncertain. While Hizballah has asserted that it wants the brothers back, it is possible that the demand is merely a noisy tactic designed to wrest concessions and appease the powerful Hammadi clan.

Several other potential stumbling blocks exist. Islamic Jihad's call for "the release of all detainees around the world," if serious, may bring at least seven other European countries into the negotiations. Five Arab terrorists are held in Britain, two in France, two in Greece, five in Italy, three in Spain, three in Sweden and one in Switzerland. Most of these men have been convicted of crimes; the others are awaiting trial for acts ranging from the importation of explosives to the 1985 hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro. Perez de Cuellar signaled that the release of any of these prisoners would not be considered; he called them a "legal problem," as distinct from the "political problem" of the hostages.

Tehran has put in an unconvincing bid for the release of four Iranians who have been missing in Lebanon since the 1982 Israeli invasion. The Lebanese government has steadily maintained that all four are dead. In addition, although Hizballah hinted privately last week that its vague demand for the release of the thousands of Palestinians detained by Israel during the uprising in the occupied territories was just a bargaining ploy that could be dropped, Ahmed Jibril, a radical Palestinian leader with strong ties to Syria, < specifically called for their release. A senior British diplomat warns, "It's impossible to tell whether he was speaking for himself, his group, the Palestine Liberation Organization or all of them."

General Antoine Lahd, commander of the South Lebanon Army militia, weighed in with a requirement that nine of his militiamen held by Hizballah be released or accounted for. Lahd holds the keys to El Khiam prison in southern Lebanon, where Israel detains 350 of the Shi'ites sought by Islamic Jihad -- though Israel would probably make him unlock the door if its soldiers are recovered. Damascus has also put in a bid for the release of an unspecified number of Syrian soldiers it claims were detained by Israel in the Golan Heights.

With so many competing claims, it is impossible to predict when the dealmaking will conclude. Yet despite the various complications, there are several promising signs. Kidnappers and victimized nations alike seem eager to find a solution, particularly before the Middle East peace conference that is expected to be convened in October. From their distant captivity, some of the Western hostages sent word through recently released hostages that even they believe an end to their ordeal is finally at hand. Perhaps most promising of all, Perez de Cuellar -- the point man in all of this -- is increasingly tight-lipped. As diplomats know, when negotiations are truly moving forward, the dealmakers usually have less and less to say.

With reporting by William Mader/London and Lara Marlowe/Beirut