The Political Interest

By Michael Kramer

The outrage and thirst for vengeance that suffused the comments of senior Saudi and Kuwaiti officials last fall are gone. They are more cautious now, more level-headed, as they consider the realities of the Middle East after a victory over Iraq. Long major players in the region's intricate politics, these Saudis and Kuwaitis will be charged with picking up the pieces after the U.S. turns its attention to another crisis somewhere else in the world.

Security remains the primary concern. "Even if Saddam himself is out," says a Saudi minister, "his Baath Party will probably control the country for a while, and there will be more than enough military hardware to threaten us."

For a time, this calculation led Kuwait's government-in-exile to urge that thousands of American ground troops remain in Kuwait indefinitely. "That's changed," says a Kuwaiti diplomat. "We want U.S. military equipment in place, just in case, and an increased American naval presence, but security on the ground should be left to Arabs." Toward that goal, the Gulf Cooperation Council (the gulf states and Saudi Arabia) is busy concocting an enhanced military defense scheme they call "GCC Plus." Two army components of approximately 30,000 ground troops each will probably be deputized as trip- wire forces to be stationed throughout the region. One will be composed of gulf and Saudi forces; the other will be primarily Egyptian. "Egypt has the experience, and it is willing," says a Kuwaiti aide to the exiled Emir. "In return, we will significantly help Cairo with its financial problems, and we will do the same for Syria."

The Saudis and Kuwaitis have aided poorer Arab states in the past, but their postwar funding will be hedged. "Bad economic policy, too socialist in its orientation, has kept those countries poor," says Ali al-Khalifa al-Sabah, Kuwait's Finance Minister. "We want to see true market economies develop," says a Saudi finance official. "Our aid from now on will be mainly structural in form. If we can get those countries on their feet financially, a lot of the underlying instability in the region can be alleviated."

Jordan too will benefit. For months, gulf leaders coupled King Hussein with Saddam Hussein. "We didn't care if he met Saddam's fate, but reality intrudes," says a Kuwaiti official. "The Americans are right: no decent alternative exists. Middle East stability demands that we keep the King in power. We're prepared to help him. It sticks in all our throats -- we really hate him -- but what are you going to do?"

The Palestinian problem is another matter. The gulf states are quietly urging Syria to normalize relations with Israel. "Bilateral relations are the way to go," says a Saudi assistant to King Fahd. "Not only because ((Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak)) Shamir won't agree to an international conference, but because we don't want to reward the P.L.O. Syria's revolutionary credentials are impeccable. If Syria comes to terms with Israel, the crazies will be less able to scream. If we ourselves did it, you can bet that Libya and the P.L.O. would move to destabilize us."

Everything about Israel provokes the greatest curiosity. During a recent dinner in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia, a Saudi and a Kuwaiti, both officials, spoke admiringly of Jerusalem's restraint in the face of Iraq's Scud attacks and discussed visiting Israel. "I want to fly El Al," said the Saudi. "That's nothing," said the Kuwaiti. "I want to take the QE2's Mediterranean cruise, the one that stops in Haifa for a week." "You're joking," said the Saudi. "No, I'm serious," replied the Kuwaiti. "Okay," the Saudi shot back, "I'll join you."