Israel: Angling for the Postwar Edge

By Jon D. Hull/Jerusalem

What a difference a war can make. Before the allied bombing of Iraq began, Yitzhak Shamir seemed destined never to win any popularity contests. Devoid of charisma, stubborn and introverted, the Prime Minister often provoked yawns in Israel and angst in Washington.

Ever since air-raid sirens first wailed throughout Israel, however, Shamir has been praised for his unprecedented restraint and calm leadership in the face of at least 31 Scud missile attacks that have left at least four dead and more than 300 wounded. George Bush has telephoned more often in the past month than in the past two years, and Shamir's ratings at home have never been higher.

But Shamir is far too suspicious to fall for such flattery. Instead, he is already strengthening his defenses for the political battle he believes Washington and the allies will wage against his hard-line government once the smoke clears over Kuwait. Fearing renewed pressure to compromise with the Palestinians, Shamir is taking advantage of his sudden popularity to shore up support in Congress, further discredit the Palestinians and harden his own government against any territorial concessions.

The Likud Party leader dug in deeper last week by appointing extremist ex- General Rehavam Ze'evi as Minister Without Portfolio and a member of the Cabinet's defense committee. If Shamir intended to dampen speculation about what Secretary of State James Baker called "opportunities to build a more secure world order," he picked the right man. Ze'evi, whose Moledet (Homeland) Party holds two Knesset seats, advocates the transfer to neighboring Arab states of all 1.7 million Palestinians living in the Israeli- occupied West Bank and Gaza.

The appointment shocked even Shamir loyalists. Knesset member Benjamin Begin warned that any member of the governing coalition who advocated a transfer policy "is, in effect, confirming the United Nations resolution that says Zionism is tantamount to racism." Shamir sought to downplay the controversy as party politics, insisting that transfer was out of the question. After a stormy Knesset debate, the nomination was approved by a vote of 61 to 54.

Shamir's willingness to expend goodwill attests to his determination to buttress his government against any future political offensive by Washington. With Moledet, Shamir's coalition has 66 of 120 seats, lessening his dependence on the pivotal but fickle religious parties and assuring him that he can keep | the Labor Party on the sidelines. More important, Ze'evi's presence signals to both the West and the Arab world that Israel has not gone soft.

Despite a warning last week by Deputy Chief of Staff Ehud Barak that the military's "fingers itch" to carry out a retaliation against Iraq, Shamir is unlikely to give the go-ahead in the near future unless additional missiles cause significant casualties or contain chemical warheads. Though his restraint is billed as a tremendous sacrifice, his stance so far is based entirely on self-interest. The Jewish state's most powerful Arab foe is being destroyed, at least 80% of Israelis are against immediate retaliation, and the government is scoring valuable points with Washington.

In return, Shamir is hoping for lenient treatment once the U.S. turns its attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict. He may be in for a surprise. Says a U.S. diplomat: "We're going to owe some Arab countries much more than we owe Israel." Distrusting Bush and Baker, Shamir is banking instead on the support of Congress, which will have its eye on the 1992 elections.

As a precaution, Shamir has also promised to revive his own peace initiative, which he buried last year after Baker took it seriously. The plan called for direct peace talks with the Arab states, as well as elections in the territories to choose leaders who would then negotiate limited autonomy with Israel. This time Shamir hopes to quash the P.L.O.'s campaign for a Palestinian homeland once and for all, while demanding that Arab nations end their state of belligerency with Israel. He says, "Arafat and his ilk are the biggest supporters of the murderer in Baghdad. The time has come for the international community to distance itself from this terrorist organization." That process is already under way. Says Samuel Lewis, former U.S. ambassador to Israel: "The Administration has learned the need to deal with the Arab states at least in parallel with the Palestinians."

While fending off unwelcome peace probes, Jerusalem intends to transform the widespread sympathy in the U.S. into billions of dollars in additional military and financial aid. Last month Finance Minister Yitzhak Modai estimated that Israel would need $3 billion to cover war-related costs and $7 billion to $10 billion more in grants and loan guarantees over the next five years to help absorb Soviet Jewish immigrants. The angry response in Washington forced Shamir to backpedal furiously, and the figures are now described as mere talking points. *

The war against Iraq has improved both Israel's image and its security. But unless Shamir can adapt to the postwar order, those gains will be short-lived. So far, his ambitious strategy looks disastrous. As long as he refuses to deal with the Palestinians, he cannot expect peace with the Arab states. Nor will Washington automatically provide the billions in aid needed to house and employ Soviet Jews. If Shamir simply chooses to hunker down and avoid compromise, his nation may find itself even more isolated than it was before the war.

With reporting by Christopher Ogden/Washington