America Abroad

By Strobe Talbott

RIYADH

The U.S. Navy lieutenant was off duty and out of uniform. For a shopping trip in downtown Riyadh, she had put on an abayya, the head-to-toe, long-sleeved robe that Saudi women usually wear in public. That wasn't good enough for the mutawa, the vigilantes who enforce Muslim religious laws against impiety and immodesty. A member of the group accosted her as she was entering a shop, prodded her painfully with a long stick and berated her for neglecting to veil her face. A merchant rushed to her defense and explained that she was an American, part of the international effort to save the country. Barely missing a beat, the morals cop switched into English and continued his harangue more angrily than ever.

Western influence in Saudi Arabia has reached the point at which an agent of obscurantism and xenophobia can now vituperate against foreigners in their own language. The conservative clergy is still a powerful force here, and it is by no means reconciled to King Fahd's decision to ask infidels to help protect the kingdom.

U.S. experts on the Middle East have been concerned for years that the House of Saud might be vulnerable, not just to opponents who consider the monarchy an anachronism but also to Islamic fundamentalists who would, if they could, turn the country into a theocracy that would make the present regime, even with the mutawa, seem futuristic by comparison.

When the Ayatullah Khomeini became the regional monster a dozen years ago, Washington feared he would export his revolution across the gulf. That was one reason the U.S. at the time backed Khomeini's enemy, Saddam Hussein.

Last fall the CIA warned the White House that Operation Desert Shield could, if it continued too long, worsen underlying tensions between mosque and palace in Saudi Arabia. It was largely with that danger in mind that General Norman Schwarzkopf, the U.S. commander, told his officers, "Let's be careful we don't win the war but lose the peace." There's no way nearly 400,000 troops can be invisible, but there are plenty of ways they can respect local customs. That's why quite a few women in the U.S. contingent bought abayyas before they did any other shopping.

Still, before the Baker-Aziz meeting, several senior members of the royal family had privately told President Bush that they feared "strains in our % society" if Desert Shield continues indefinitely and inconclusively. A top Administration Arabist has predicted that if American forces are still camped in the desert during the holy month of Ramadan, which begins in mid-March, the result could be "an increase in clandestine opposition from religious extremists, with possible destabilizing results." Many Saudis reacted with something like relief to the apparent breakdown of diplomacy last week. If there is to be a military moment of truth, better it come quickly.

The fundamentalists suspect, correctly, that Western-educated Saudis hope one outcome of the current crisis will be to accelerate the process of modernization. If a war against Saddam is quick, decisive and not too bloody, the reformist elements in Saudi society will feel encouraged to open the country further to the outside world. The U.S. men -- and women -- now in Saudi Arabia may not be fighting directly for democracy, but they could end up contributing to the liberalization and therefore the long-term viability of the kingdom.