Advantage: The Alliance

By BRUCE VAN VOORST/SAUDI ARABIA

As the U.S. Air Force F-15E fighter-bomber lifted off from a Saudi airfield, deadly Sparrow and Sidewinder air-to-air missiles glistened beneath its wings. Not far away, in the Persian Gulf, sailors on the battleship Wisconsin ran through training drills with their 32 Tomahawk cruise missiles, each capable of hitting targets 700 miles away with a 1,000-lb. conventional warhead. At a desolate desert site in northeast Saudi Arabia, tanks of the U.S. 1st Marine Division blazed away in live-fire exercises. In the last nerve-racking hours before "K-day" -- the U.N.'s Jan. 15 deadline for Iraq to get out of Kuwait -- U.S. troops were understandably edgy. But they had little doubt that they were capable of smashing Saddam Hussein's army. "We're ready," is all that Brigadier General Mike Myatt, commander of the 1st Marines, would say. But his remark spoke volumes.

Such confidence, widely shared by rank-and-file soldiers, contradicts the more cautious assessments of some senior commanders. They maintain that it will be mid-February before their troops are fully prepared for combat. But a firsthand inspection of the frontline forces suggests that Myatt's optimism is justified. The U.S. and allied soldiers already in place seem capable of delivering an overwhelming blow against the Iraqis. Even worse from Saddam's viewpoint, the alliance is growing stronger with each passing day. By K-day, 430,000 U.S. and 245,000 allied soldiers will square off against 605,000 Iraqi troops.

When asked to predict the outcome of a war against Iraq, senior officers invariably quote Clausewitz's warning about the "fog of war" -- the uncertainties that inevitably crop up in combat. Even so, it seems possible, perhaps even likely, that the U.S.-led alliance could score a reasonably quick knockout. The awesome arsenal that the coalition has assembled in the gulf provides it with overwhelming military advantages. "I look at the scenarios," says an Army colonel, "and I just don't see where Saddam's army is going to hide."

Though there is justified skepticism that air power alone can defeat Saddam's forces, it remains the key to allied victory. Pounded by a savage aerial assault unlike anything they experienced in their war with Iran, some Iraqi units might collapse. The U.S., Saudi and British air forces have a combined strength of more than 1,500 combat aircraft, enough to mount close to 2,000 bombing sorties a day against Iraqi targets. The initial attack would be led by radar-evading F-117A Stealth fighter-bombers and sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles, attacking key Iraqi military and infrastructure facilities. In the second phase of the air campaign, hulking Air Force B-52s, F-111s and F-15Es would join Navy F/A-18s and A-6s in striking Iraqi ground installations, from water-purification works to command and control centers and airfields.

If all went well, the Iraqi air force would be swept from the skies within the first couple of days. That would allow the air attacks to be stepped up . even more, cutting Iraqi supply and communications lines and leaving the occupation forces inside Kuwait unable to replenish their supplies of ammunition, food and, above all, water. Some U.S. aircraft would be lost to Iraq's enormous ground-defense system, but the toll might be relatively low. Congressman Les Aspin, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, estimates that no more than 10 U.S. planes a day would be shot down in the initial bombing campaign.

Once the bombing had softened up the Iraqi positions, U.S. ground forces could go into action. Part of the force might swing to the west to cut off Iraqi forces in southern Iraq while other units mounted a frontal attack to smash through enemy defenses in Kuwait. Though military tradition holds that an attacking force must have a 3-to-1 superiority in numbers to be confident of victory, U.S. troops have good reasons for discounting those odds in a battle against Iraq. Among them:

Training. The U.S. military is an all-volunteer force with the highest levels of education and training in history. As a result, American soldiers have proved remarkably adaptable, quickly solving many of the unique problems posed by desert warfare. Helicopter-maintenance crews, for example, have learned to prevent the dustlike Saudi sands from damaging their choppers by cleaning filters more often and applying a new epoxy to rotor blades to stanch erosion.

Weapons. Close to 1,000 M1A1 tanks are now in Saudi Arabia, and with their laser range finders, infrared sensors and digital computerized firing systems, they should be able to outrun and outgun the best Iraqi tanks, Soviet-made T- 72s. Infantry will navigate with the Global Positioning Satellite system, a book-size receiver that allows them to determine their location within a couple of yards. The big surprise if war broke out could be American Apache and Cobra helicopters. Despite a reputation for maintenance problems, the Apaches in Saudi Arabia have been ready for duty more than 80% of the time. Each Apache is equipped with eight laser-guided Hellfire antitank missiles, and, says a maintenance officer, "each Hellfire's a dead tank."

Logistics. U.S. logistical superiority could quickly become a decisive factor. To assure adequate stocks of food, water, fuel and ammunition, the U.S. has mounted the biggest military resupply effort in history. Some 100 transport ships are sailing toward Saudi Arabia. More than 2,500 trucks will deliver * weapons and ammunition to the front.

Motivation. In the final analysis, the outcome could turn on the motivation of individual soldiers, and on this count, the U.S. (and some of its allies) enjoys a decided advantage. Early concerns about troop morale have faded. Without alcohol and other diversions, these troops just may be the toughest ever. "Saddam might yet regret having given us time to get ready," said Sergeant First Class Donna Munyon, 33, of McHenry, Ill.

Along with the bravado, there is apprehension. The troops are aware of predictions that perhaps as many as 20,000 of them could be wounded or killed. They are particularly nervous about the threat of Iraqi chemical or biological warfare, and officers have no trouble enforcing regulations that protective gear be carried at all times. Says Specialist Robert Kraus, 20, of Jefferson Station, N.Y.: "There's fear to an extent. I am not saying the Army brainwashes you. But we train so much that we are used to what is going to happen."

The long wait may soon be over. At week's end soldiers were sending home personal souvenirs and items they do not want to carry into battle. Despite their confidence in their mission, it was not easy to look at them and reflect on what might lie ahead.