How Low Can We Go?

By DAVID ELLIS/

In public, Administration officials shy away from the R word -- recession, that is -- when talking about the economy. But now they privately acknowledge that the nation is in a serious downturn. Bush advisers say the economy will show negative growth for the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of nearly 3%. Says a senior analyst: "Chances are better than fifty-fifty that the first quarter of 1991 will be negative too." If that proves correct, the economic contraction would fit the generally accepted definition of a recession. Despite the bad news, the White House does not plan to change its wait-and-see attitude. "Nobody here or up on Capitol Hill has anything in their bag of tricks to help the economy right now," says another presidential aide.

With reporting by Linda Williams