The Germs of War

Even if Saddam fails to produce a nuclear bomb, U.S. officials say he already has the means to wage an equally horrifying kind of war. Reports that Iraq is stockpiling biological weapons have intensified speculation among military experts about the threat of war by disease.

Biological weapons can employ a deadly array of organisms and naturally occurring toxins. Packaged inside small bombs and delivered by aircraft or artillery shells, the germs would be released in a mist of infectious droplets that victims would inhale. A tiny amount would go a long way. Less than 1 g (0.035 oz.) of a bacterium called tularemia could produce thousands of deadly doses. U.S. officials insist that soldiers can be protected from such an attack with gas masks and nonpermeable clothing. But the gear cannot be worn indefinitely, especially in the desert's searing heat, and strains resistant to existing vaccines can be developed.

The big drawback of germ warfare is its unpredictability. Saddam might be reluctant to use it on the battlefield because his own soldiers could become infected. He would be more likely to launch germ attacks against specific targets, such as airfields, command centers and ships, or against civilian populations in an attempt to cripple oil production. Even then, the Iraqi leader would need to choose his weapon carefully. Some hardy microbes, such as anthrax and plague, can infect an area for years, which would make it dangerous for Iraq's troops to move into a territory that had been captured with the help of germ warfare.

Saddam would also have to consider the inevitable outrage of the international community, which has banned the use of biological weapons since 1975. Resort to germ warfare would doubtless provoke devastating reprisals. "Saddam would be insane to use biological agents," says Matthew Meselson, a biological-weapons expert at Harvard University. Still, the Iraqi leader has ignored international opinion before. During the Iran-Iraq conflict, he employed poison gas against Iranian infantry and his own Kurdish population. The main impact of germ warfare on American soldiers may be psychological. Says Robert Weinberg, a germ-warfare expert at M.I.T.: "The very notion of biological agents strikes fear into their hearts."

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CREDIT: TIME Chart

CAPTION: WHAT IRAQ MAY USE