Low Profile, High Alert

By JON D. HULL JERUSALEM

For the second time in a decade, the Middle East is on the verge of a war without Israel at the epicenter. Not yet, anyway. As Iraq and the U.S.-led forces massed against it continue to stare each other down, the Israelis have their own worst-case scenario: cornered and desperate, Saddam Hussein launches dozens of missiles at Israel, followed by jet fighters bristling with chemical bombs. Some penetrate Israel's defenses and rain death on Tel Aviv and Haifa. ^ Saddam is hailed -- albeit posthumously -- as a hero of the Arab masses.

Farfetched? Not according to Israeli intelligence, which considers it "likely" that Saddam will attempt to lash out at Israel if he is attacked by the U.S. Although Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir declared last week that Israel "lives in this storm but has no part in it," he has warned his countrymen that they have entered a "period of emergency." In an interview on Israeli television, Shamir said Saddam "wants to involve us in the current confrontation." Defense Minister Moshe Arens concurs: "If somebody in Iraq decides to push a button and launch a ballistic missile, that missile will probably land somewhere in Israel."

The paradox is that while Israel has long warned against the danger of Iraq, it is, by force of circumstance, in no position to take action. Washington has made it clear, and Shamir's government has conceded, that Western interests are best served if Israel lies low. Any assertive Israeli intrusion might jeopardize the delicate accord the U.S. has reached with its Arab allies or give Saddam an excuse to turn the crisis into an anti-Israeli crusade.

Israeli military analysts believe that the U.S. would be wise to strike first. Some even suggest that Israel take the initiative, using its air superiority. But faced with intense U.S. pressure, Israeli officials say they feel constrained in their ability to take any pre-emptive action, however tempting.

In the meantime, the Israeli air force remains on alert, and the air defenses around Dimona, Israel's nuclear complex, have been strengthened. Military intelligence claims that it can detect in advance any Iraqi preparations for a missile launch. But officials do not believe that Iraq has the technological ability to loft chemical warheads inside Israel's borders. In the worst case, say experts, Iraq can wound but not cripple the Jewish state.

That offers little comfort to Israeli citizens. Residents were dismayed to learn that their air-raid shelters would prove useless, since heavier-than-air poison gas seeps into underground shelters and lingers there. Many were incredulous when an expert explained that a cloth soaked in water and baking soda could serve as a makeshift breathing mask.

Israelis would prefer to have real gas masks now, and are angrily debating whether the government should release its huge civilian stockpiles. The issue is dividing the leadership. "The masks were intended for these times," insists Foreign Minister David Levy. Shamir and Arens apparently disagree, and have postponed a final decision, fearing that any such move would cause panic or convince Baghdad that Israel is preparing to attack.

For now, Jerusalem is content to sit tight and reap a propaganda harvest from Iraqi belligerence. "Our credibility has been restored to a great extent," gloats Yossi Olmert, director of the government press office. As Israelis see it, the Palestine Liberation Organization has been discredited as an Iraqi lapdog, while the uprising in the occupied territories suddenly seems irrelevant. "Imagine the U.S. talking tough with us now," chuckles a Likud party official. The Israeli left, meanwhile, is on the defensive. Says Knesset member Yossi Sarid, who favors Israeli-P.L.O. peace talks: "I don't see any chance for a dialogue in the foreseeable future."

If the U.S. prevails against Iraq, the Administration would be in a strong position to influence policy in the region. The easiest way for President Bush to soothe Arab emotions and demonstrate evenhandedness would be to pressure Israel into negotiations with the Palestinians.

Israel must swallow the increased strategic cooperation between the U.S. and Arab allies, even as Israel's own strategic importance to Washington seems diminished. When the U.S. announced last week that it intended to sell advanced F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, Israeli officials were uncharacteristically mute. Of course, Israel will use this crisis to press for additional U.S. military aid too.

Israel's worst fear is that U.S. resolve will gradually evaporate. "Time is not on the American side," says an intelligence official. But time is not on Israel's side either. Should Saddam and his weapons survive the showdown with the West, the shock wave would radicalize the entire Arab world, putting Israel in graver jeopardy still.