Albania Next to Fall?

When hundreds of Albanians braved police gunfire last week to seek refuge in a dozen foreign embassies in Tirana, few diplomats doubted their desire to leave Eastern Europe's last redoubt of doctrinaire communism. But many also suspected that the diplomatic missions were being used in a power struggle between hard-liners and reformers in the party leadership.

They could be right. Ever since last year's wave of anticommunist revolutions, Albania's Stalinist-style regime has wavered between digging in and opening up. At first it said it would remain faithful to the orthodox Marxism of longtime leader Enver Hoxha. But last May, Ramiz Alia, who came to * power after Hoxha's death in 1985, abolished restrictions on religious observance and granted citizens the right to travel abroad.

Alia's modest reforms seem to have split the 53-member Central Committee of the ruling party. Many Western diplomats believe a strong conservative faction has grown up around Hoxha's widow Nexhmije, supported by the Sigurimi, Albania's much feared secret police force. Anxious to slow if not halt the reforms, the conservatives may even have sought to oust Alia.

Some diplomats felt that other elements in the government had welcomed and perhaps encouraged the asylum seekers' escape bid. "If Alia wants to break with the conservatives, this is his opportunity," said a Western diplomat. "It is tailor-made for a showdown."

That scenario grew even more plausible when a second wave of would-be emigrants headed for the embassies late in the week. Police, who had earlier cordoned off the diplomatic district, made no attempt to stop them. They did, however, intervene to disperse 10,000 pro-democracy demonstrators gathered in nearby Skanderbeg Square. By then more than 1,500 Albanians had taken refuge in the West German embassy, and hundreds more were holed up in other missions.

As the numbers continued to rise, Western concern began to grow too. A victory by the conservative faction could turn the trickle into a flood. At week's end the Albanian parliament agreed to let all the asylum seekers leave the country without fear of punishment. Whether that will stop the flow for good is another matter.