Middle East When Madmen Call the Shots

By JON D. HULL JERUSALEM

It shouldn't take a madman to remind the world that Israel and the Palestinians are stumbling toward disaster. Yet a deranged 21-year-old Israeli did just that last week, when he emptied three magazines from a Galil assault rifle into a crowd of unarmed Arab workers near Tel Aviv, killing seven and wounding eleven. The Israeli army promptly imposed curfews on most of the West Bank and all of the Gaza Strip and called for calm. But outraged Palestinians responded with strikes and stones, demanding revenge. By nightfall, another seven Arabs had been killed and at least 700 wounded in one of the bloodiest ) days of the 29-month-old uprising.

When the worst rioting in more than two years later erupted among Israeli Arabs, many feared that the intifadeh was spreading into Israel proper. As reinforcements poured into the territories, President George Bush pointedly urged Israel to exercise "maximum restraint." Secretary of State James Baker said the U.S. might discuss the deployment of U.N. observers, a measure debated at a special U.N. session in Geneva last week, underscoring American displeasure with Israel's refusal to engage in a peace dialogue. The army's massive crackdown eventually cooled the widespread rioting in the territories, after three days of violence left 15 dead, including an Israeli murdered in Jerusalem, and at least 800 wounded. But the sudden escalation proved that the uprising lives, despite both Israeli force and Arab infighting, making a mockery of a prediction three weeks ago by Major General Yitzhak Mordechai, commander in the West Bank, that the Palestinians were "in retreat."

The carnage also showed that the entire region is growing dangerously impatient with the political stalemate. The shock wave spread to Jordan, where a Palestinian attacked a busload of tourists, wounding ten, and four Palestinians died after thousands took to the streets in the worst rioting since April 1989, threatening King Hussein's grip on the troubled kingdom. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak warned that settlement of Soviet Jews in the disputed territories threatened "to put the whole region on the verge of a new bloody confrontation."

Despite the explosive atmosphere, Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir continued his leisurely efforts to form a narrow right-wing coalition after the collapse of the national unity government two months ago. Shamir's prospects may depend on the cooperation of a far-right party headed by Rehavam Ze'evi, who is demanding the sensitive post of Police Minister as the price for his support. Ze'evi informed the Knesset last week, "Arabs only understand when they are clubbed on the head." Palestinian leader Faisal Husseini, one of 46 Palestinians who launched a hunger strike to protest last week's killings, was no more encouraging in his assessment of the situation. "This is our last attempt to defend our program of nonviolence," said Husseini. "If it fails, the consequences will be terrible."

There is, of course, nothing nonviolent about rocks and fire bombs. If Palestinians resort to arms, they will only invite harsher reprisals. But ( Israel faces a far more serious threat. After 23 years as an occupying force and more than two years of attempting to suppress the uprising, the nation is fast succumbing to an insidious form of moral decay. Arabs are dehumanized, soldiers are brutalized; both the electorate and the government are alarmingly divided over the fundamental issues facing the country. U.S.-Israeli relations have deteriorated. Choosing inaction by default, Israel is ultimately acting against its own self-interests. "We have run out of time," warned the Hebrew daily Hadashot.

Though last week's massacre may have shocked Israelis, it has failed to induce political sobriety and courage. Those qualities will also probably be lacking at this week's emergency Arab summit in Baghdad, where leaders are expected to debate a more confrontational approach to Israel and endorse the Palestine Liberation Organization's proposal to put U.N. observers into the territories.

This growing frustration among Arab leaders could radicalize the conflict. In the year and a half since the U.S. agreed to talk with the P.L.O., Arafat has largely avoided extremist rhetoric and action, despite his own hard-line flank, which argues that moderation has conspicuously failed to budge Israel. Arafat is also increasingly being influenced by the militant Saddam Hussein. King Hussein too is seeking shelter under Saddam's umbrella, in part because of right-wing Israeli demands for a Palestinian state in Jordan. At least two prominent Israeli generals privately warn that if the situation worsens, it could lead to war.

That is why last week's brutal slayings were not only shocking but frightening as well. Though the massacre may have been random, it cannot be isolated. Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens angrily insisted that "there is no connection at all" between the crazy acts of a lone gunman and the policies of the government. But he misses the point. As long as political leaders refuse to sit down and talk, the madmen on both sides are left calling -- and firing -- the shots.

With reporting by Dean Fischer/Cairo