Next To Break from the Pack?

By JOHN KOHAN TALLINN

Mikhail Gorbachev does not like waiting. After trying several times to reach Estonian President Arnold Ruutel by telephone last week, he was in no mood for small talk when he finally got through late Tuesday evening. The Soviet President told Ruutel that he had "lost his temper" over the Estonian parliament's decision two weeks ago that declared "the state supremacy of the Soviet Union to be illegal" in the republic. What exactly did that mean? Gorbachev demanded. If the Estonians no longer recognized the Soviet constitution, what law was operating?

Ruutel had a ready response: Estonian law. Displeased, Gorbachev called the decision "improper" and summoned the Estonian President to Moscow immediately to explain himself. When Ruutel declined, the Soviet leader turned tough. If the declaration was not rescinded, Gorbachev warned, Moscow would impose the same "regimen" there as in rebellious Lithuania. Ruutel replied that Estonians understood the consequences of their actions.

And so the gauntlet was thrown down in another Baltic rebellion against the Soviets that could further complicate superpower relations. Even as Eduard Shevardnadze and the Bush Administration were trying to muffle Lithuania's impact in Washington, Estonia was setting off on a similar course of defiance. As Ruutel told a group of visiting TIME editors in Tallinn last week: "We understand the concern abroad that we are, perhaps, too bold in our demands and are undermining Gorbachev's position. But the interests of the superpowers should not be advanced at the expense of small nations."

Some Estonians have concerns about the brash way in which Lithuania declared outright independence, but sympathy with the decision is widespread. Says Enn- Arno Sillari, First Secretary of the independent Estonian Communist Party: "I'd like to think the Lithuanians are paving the way for us." The Estonians prefer to take more measured steps toward sovereignty. Instead of a complete break with Moscow, the Supreme Soviet two weeks ago called for an unspecified transition period leading to "the formation of the constitutional institutions of the Republic of Estonia."

The Estonians contend that, technically speaking, they are not seceding. They are simply restoring the sovereignty that Moscow guaranteed them "unconditionally and for all time" in 1920 -- then violated under the terms of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, which led to Stalin's annexation of the Baltics. Estonian legislators want the issue of independence placed on the agenda for a Helsinki conference that Gorbachev has proposed to lay the foundation for his much touted "common European home." Legalists in Tallinn cite the Austrian State Treaty of 1955, which guaranteed the country's neutrality in exchange for the withdrawal of Soviet troops, as a model for Soviet military disengagement.

Like the Lithuanians, the Estonians are bracing for a showdown over the issue of military conscription. The Estonian parliament has approved a law on alternative military service, and plans to dismantle local draft boards. Local movements like Geneva-49, a citizens' action group opposed to the draft, have denounced service in the Soviet army as a violation of the 1949 Geneva Conventions barring citizens of occupied states from having to serve in the occupation forces.

Estonia is already engaged in a "banking war" with Moscow. Even though the Baltic republics were given the green light last November to pursue radical economic reforms, when enabling laws went into effect in January, the Estonians were ordered to turn over the 2.3 billion-ruble reserve in the local savings bank to the Moscow-controlled State Bank. Tallinn's branch of the U.S.S.R. Bank for Foreign Economic Affairs, now part of the new Estonian Republican Bank, was further told to close down any hard-currency accounts abroad and let Moscow handle future external cash transfers. The Estonians grudgingly agreed. They plan to introduce their own currency by the end of the year and to open a new, commercial shareholders bank.

A shadow parliament now exists alongside the Estonian Supreme Soviet. The new Congress of Estonia is a largely symbolic body, elected by citizens of the old Estonian republic and their descendants. But the Congress claims to be the "bearer of supreme authority" in the republic and has been recognized by the Supreme Soviet. The initiative has helped inflame non-Estonians, who make up 40% of the republic's population of 1.5 million. In the predominantly Russian-speaking cities of Narva and Kotla-Jarve, local councils have refused to recognize the parliament's independence call.

Now that Estonia has aligned itself with Lithuania, will Latvia be next? Members of the independence-oriented Popular Front there say that when a newly elected Supreme Soviet convenes next month in Riga, odds are good that the parliament will also vote for independence. Agrees Estonian parliamentarian Marju Lauristin in Tallinn: "We are in a bicycle race, where the teams change leaders to keep up the pace. The Lithuanians have broken away from the pack. Now it is our turn. Perhaps the Latvians will follow." The question is when, if ever, they will be allowed to cross the finish line.