Why Is He So Popular?

By MICHAEL DUFFY

George Bush did not need to go to Colombia to boost his already stratospheric approval ratings. True, he wanted to show his support for Colombian President Virgilio Barco's war against his country's entrenched cocaine processors. He also had some serious fence mending to do with Latin leaders aggrieved by the Panama invasion. But while the Cartegena drop-by took place on foreign soil, it was designed for domestic consumption. For Bush to score points at home, all he had to do was go a few rounds on the Medellin cartel's turf and come back alive. His bold posture is working: 60% of Americans polled last week by TIME/CNN approved of the way Bush is fighting the war on drugs.

In the Bush White House, as in high school, there is no such thing as being too popular. Since last fall, Bush's approval ratings have soared to levels unmatched since John Kennedy's first year, and they show no sign of abating. In the TIME/CNN poll, 76% approved of the way Bush is handling his job as President, up from 70% two weeks before. While White House aides publicly feign nonchalance about these numbers, privately they are delighted if a bit puzzled. Explained one: "We're really glad it's there; we're glad people like him. But nobody can explain it."

Much of the credit goes to the three Ps: Peace, Prosperity and Panama. Voters appreciate Bush's affable nature, his no-nonsense wife Barbara and his flock of grandchildren. Add to that low unemployment and inflation, the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, the dramatic capture of Manuel Noriega and the sense that Bush loves his impossible job and is working hard at it. This flavorful gumbo has a broad appeal. Bush gets good marks even from a majority of blacks and Democrats.

But Bush's support is as thin as it is wide. Though the TIME/CNN survey shows that Bush wins high marks for his stewardship of foreign policy, he gets markedly lower grades for domestic affairs. While 75% say the President is providing strong leadership, they are not wowed by his habit of substituting rhetoric for action.

So far, the gap has not hurt him, perhaps because the President's all-hat- and-no-cattle (as Bush likes to call showy cowboys) approach to domestic problems mirrors voters' own mixed feelings about unfinished business. White House pollster Robert Teeter, who takes monthly soundings, points out that Americans want problems addressed but have little appetite for expensive big fixes. "They want him to be doing something," says Teeter, "but they don't want him to go overboard."

Bush has so carefully trod the line between will and wallet that pollsters hear few specific criticisms about him in focus groups and telephone interviews. Michael Donilon, a Washington pollster who in December conducted 200 interviews on Bush , reports that abortion is the only issue that makes people feel "uneasy" about the President. New York Governor Mario Cuomo, a Democrat who praises Bush as "politically brilliant," adds, "He's saying all the right things, and he hasn't had to pay any price for it."

In fact, Bush is so popular that he needs a sophisticated maintenance | program to sustain his high ratings. In a slick piece of reverse psychology, he strives for underexposure: while most politicians crave attention, Bush made a conscious decision before his Inauguration to avoid appearing regularly on the nightly news. He not only wants to lower expectations that a President can solve the nation's problems but he also fears that his re-election will be more difficult if the public wearies of his visage in the first few years. "People get tired of seeing anybody on television," says a senior White House aide. So Bush stays on the margins of public consciousness, betting that in today's peculiar politics, as in romance, absence makes the heart grow fonder.

Bush came up with a new justification for his minimalist role last week. Angered by reports that he had made misleading and deceptive public statements, Bush strode into the press cabin on Air Force One en route to Colombia and announced that he would retaliate by holding fewer news conferences. "It's not good," Bush said peevishly about his usual availability to reporters. "It overdoes it. It's overexposure to the thing. So we've got a whole new ball game." Over the long run, a lack of credibility is much more damaging than a surfeit of attention. For now, Bush is trying to avoid one malady in the name of the other.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: TIME Chart by Nigel Holmes

CAPTION: Is President Bush doing a good or a poor job:

With reporting by Dan Goodgame/Washington