Middle East Exodus to the Promised Land

By Bruce W. Nelan

Jetliners from Europe roar into Israel's Ben-Gurion International Airport almost every day, delivering thousands of Soviet Jews to their new homeland. The immigrants trudge wearily into the terminal, to be met by whirling circles of young people from the Orthodox B'nai Akiva movement who are singing and dancing their welcome. Then, in the coming days, in an exercise they are only too familiar with from life in the Soviet Union, the newcomers form long lines outside the office of the Absorption Ministry. When they reach the heads of the queues, they receive instructions on how to sign up for a rent allowance, where to send their children to school and other quotidian details.

The influx, which began rising last year, may signal the largest wave of immigration to the state of Israel since the years immediately after its founding in 1948. Last year 12,923 arrived from the Soviet Union; this year the government expects between 70,000 and 100,000, and some Israeli officials estimate that up to 700,000 Soviet Jews might make aliyah, the "ascent" to Israel, over the next three to five years. The prospect fills Israeli leaders with joy: immigration has slumped, and in some recent years it has been equaled and possibly surpassed by emigration. Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir spoke for many of his fellow right-wing politicians when he said, "Big immigration requires Israel to be big as well." The Arab world is reacting with concern and anger.

Traditionally, most Jews who managed to obtain Soviet exit visas went to the U.S. -- 183,679 over the past 15 years. But as part of his reforms, President Mikhail Gorbachev is permitting much freer emigration than his country has ever seen. One of the unpleasant side effects of glasnost has been the rapid rise of anti-Semitism and right-wing Russian nationalism, which adds impetus to Jewish departures. A bill now before the parliament in Moscow will remove almost all limits on citizens who want to leave the country. At the same time, citing rising costs of resettlement and the need to deal fairly with other nationalities, Washington has put a ceiling of 50,000 on the number of Soviet refugees it will admit this year. Said the Soviet Ambassador to Jordan, Alexander Zinchuk, "When we opened our door, they closed theirs." The result is an exodus to Israel.

Arab capitals, aware of the implications of the new statistics, are warning of higher tension and instability in the Middle East. Some of them hint at Soviet-American collusion; most assume that Israeli hard-liners will count on immigrants to help tighten their grip on the occupied territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. President Saddam Hussein of Iraq called the arrivals "a catastrophe befalling the Arab world." The government-run Egyptian daily al-Ahram was equally impassioned. "This is a blatant invasion," one of the paper's columnists said, blaming "American and Soviet strategies" that put the rights of Israelis above those of Palestinians. Jordanian Prime Minister Mudar Badran appeared on television last week to ask the Kremlin to "stop the emigration until peace has been established" and suggested a joint Arab mission to Moscow.

Taken aback by mounting outrage among the Arabs, Moscow has tried to limit political damage by shifting attention from Jewish emigration in general to the narrower issue of the settlement of Soviet Jews in the occupied West Bank. In Moscow First Deputy Foreign Minister Yuli Vorontsov told Israel's consular representative, "We oppose any use of citizens leaving the Soviet Union to push Palestinians off land belonging to them." Israel's actions, he said, "are likely to cause serious harm to peace in the Middle East." Another Deputy Foreign Minister, Gennadi Tarasov, flew to Tunis to reiterate those views to the Palestine Liberation Organization

% Nonsense, retorted the Israelis. Not only are immigrants free to choose where they will live, officials say, but in the past five years, only 1,397 have taken up residence in the West Bank (total population: over 1 million Arabs and nearly 80,000 Israelis), and of the 12,923 Soviet Jews who arrived last year, only 138 have settled there. Most immigrants prefer urban living and are not eager to expose themselves to the dangers of life on Israel's frontier. Even if they were willing to, there is a chronic shortage of housing. Of the 25,000 new apartments planned for immigrants to Israel in 1990 (expected to cost $1 billion), only a few hundred will be located in the occupied areas. One reason: Finance Minister Shimon Peres, the Labor Party leader, prepares the budget and does not share his Likud coalition partners' enthusiasm for such settlements.

If so few Soviet Jews have moved to the West Bank, what is the fuss about? The vital issue is the overall growth of Israel as a regional power. As Shamir put it, "In five years we won't be able to recognize this country. Everything will change, everything will be bigger, stronger." The Arab states correctly read this to mean that Israel is counting on the surge of immigration to ensure its domination of its neighbors for decades to come. No matter how clearly the Arabs see that threat, their pressure is unlikely to force Gorbachev to choke off Jewish emigration from the Soviet Union. The future success of perestroika will depend heavily on economic and technical assistance from the West, and part of the fee Gorbachev will have to pay for such help is to provide an open door for those of his countrymen who want to leave.

With reporting by Ann Blackman/Moscow and Robert Slater/Jerusalem