America

By Strobe Talbott

When George Bush proclaimed himself the environmentalist candidate in an outdoor campaign speech on Aug. 31, 1988, he had to mop his brow several times as he spoke. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, spurring a debate among scientists as to whether the mercury was registering proof of the "greenhouse effect." Carbon dioxide and other chemicals are spewed into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels like coal and gasoline; the gases trap radiation that has come from the sun and that would otherwise escape into space. The result is global warming: over time, sea levels will rise, droughts and floods could become more extreme, and tropical storms may rage more destructively.

But Bush's message was reassuring: "Those who think we're powerless to do anything about the greenhouse effect are forgetting about the White House effect. As President, I intend to do something about it." He should be held to that promise not just by his own countrymen but by the whole world. The U.S., with 5% of the earth's population, produces nearly 25% of all the CO2 from fossil fuels.

Reducing those emissions by any meaningful degree will require tough new federal standards for automobile fuel economy; government-sponsored inducements to make production of electricity by utilities -- as well as consumption by homes and businesses -- more efficient; and a major research- and-development program for alternative sources of energy. So far, the Bush Administration has not pushed for any of those measures. Nor has it proposed or endorsed any legislation mandating cuts in CO2 emissions.

Energy and transportation policies control what comes out of a nation's smokestacks and exhaust pipes. Yet there has been little coordination among the Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Departments of Energy and Transportation.

In the '88 campaign and in some of his presidential statements earlier this year, Bush accepted the proposition that the time to act is now. But the Commerce and Interior departments have waged constant guerrilla warfare against any effort to make good on the President's prior commitments. Meanwhile, the President's chief of staff John Sununu has taken to questioning aspects of the greenhouse theory. There is room for debate over the exact magnitude of climate change that will result from CO2 emissions, but no respectable scientist denies that if humanity keeps pouring gases into the atmosphere, the earth will heat up. The U.S. has spent several trillion dollars over the past 40 years buying insurance against a Soviet nuclear attack. Global warming, by contrast, is not just a risk but a certainty. It would be a shame if quibbling and ambivalence on the part of some Bush aides were to play into the hands of those who are looking for an excuse to do nothing.

Next week environmental officials from around the world will meet in the Netherlands to discuss concerted steps on CO2 emissions. The U.S. will be there, but probably without a policy. In February the U.S. will be host to an international conference on climate change in Washington. Bush is expected to address the conference. The temperature in the hall will probably be more comfortable than it was when he gave his "I am an environmentalist" speech in the hot summer of 1988. But unless he has more to show on the greenhouse effect than rhetoric, the President should be mopping his brow anyway -- at least in embarrassment, and perhaps in anxiety for the future of the planet.