Sources of The

Noriega's ability to hang on in the face of fierce opposition from the U.S. stems mainly from his tactic of buying or winning the support of a handful of key officers within the military. He has convinced some leaders of the 17,000- strong Panama Defense Forces of two dubious propositions: first, that the country's political opposition will eviscerate the PDF if it comes to power; second, that he alone represents the military's best interests. The soldiers, says a foreign diplomat, "view Noriega as the keystone in an arch; without him the arch will crumble."

The general also has a significant civilian power base among Panama's nonwhite majority. It stems from his image as the protector of la revolucion, the shift in political power led by Omar Torrijos Herrera, who seized control of the military in a coup 21 years ago. A cholo (a Spanish-American Indian), Torrijos gave fellow cholos, blacks, Chinese and other nonwhites new influence, both within the military and in the government. This broke the traditional monopoly held by the country's wealthy class of European descendants.

Under Torrijos, the Democratic Revolutionary Party (P.R.D.) became a vehicle through which once powerless nonwhites exerted new political influence. The ( party, in turn, benefited from its tight relationship with the PDF, which dispensed patronage favors. Thus, when the U.S. demands Noriega's resignation, it steps into Panama's complex mix of race and class politics. "This is a battle that is much larger than Noriega," says a senior official of the P.R.D. "Bush's people say they have no quarrel with the military. The problem is that the old-line oligarchs would use Noriega's expulsion as a chance to take back what they lost. This is what makes this a war for us."

Within the military, Noriega too has played the race issue shrewdly, promoting nonwhite officers and giving the predominantly nonwhite enlisted ranks new perks. He has traditionally stocked the post exchanges with ample and affordable consumer goods and protected the pay of enlisted men against U.S. economic sanctions. But as the angry general now wreaks revenge on his military foes, he runs the danger of straining the old loyalties. The distrust, hatred and fear injected into the army are a potentially combustible mix.